Climate forecasts quickly darkened on Thursday afternoon. Shortly after one in the afternoon, the National Climate Service (NSW) issued one for possible floods, which predicted up to 17 centimeters of rain on Friday morning at the Texas center-south, including Kerr’s county. Less than 24 hours later, it had fallen almost double the planned water, and the Guadalupe River, which runs through the bases of the local hills, grew almost nine meters and overflowed in a matter of hours. , as well as with a series of summer camps and motorhomes that were filled for the weekend of July 4, before many could pay attention to the warning warnings that had to reach their cell phones while presumably slept.
A few days later, there are more than and more than 160 missing. The Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, announced on Tuesday the new figures. The number of missing increased from a few tens on Monday to more than one and a half the next day, after a telephone line was enabled so that family members could report to their loved ones as in an unknown whereabouts. According to the governor, many of these people were for the holiday in the area, but were not registered in a hotel or camp, and has assured that they will not stop until they find all the victims. The fifth day after the catastrophe, however, the hopes of finding them alive is very low.
From the first reactions, cross accusations by local authorities and weather services have emphasized the answers about why a catastrophe of this magnitude could happen, especially in an area where floods are common. On the one hand, the most affected county officers and from the state of Texas point to the forecasts that did not indicate the intensity of the rains exactly. On the other, meteorologists defend their work, ensuring that they gave the most detailed and more detailed forecasts possible, while standing out. In addition, they suggest that the reaction and evacuation protocol did not live up to what was needed.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, and that have occurred in Democratic territories or under the government of Joe Biden, has avoided blaming anyone, saying only that what happened has been “a catastrophe that occurs once in 100 years.” Thus has also diverted criticism, which have not been expected, to the cuts in the meteorological services that its administration has promoted, although it is not yet clear if, in this case, they influenced the poor response.
According to the NWS story, it began to rain around midnight and 1.14 in the morning the first sudden flood alert was sent. That warning had to reach emergency services and local media such as radio or television stations, as well as all cell phones in the surroundings. The alert was updated nine times on Friday, and the most urgent was sent to 4.03, when the NWS warned of a sudden flood emergency. The message urged the immediate evacuation to the highest field, away from Guadalupe, because of an “extremely dangerous and fatal risk.”
The terrible evidence that is the number of deaths that has grown day after day shows that people or did not receive that alert or did not consider it sufficiently serious. Some experts have speculated that the land, full of wooded hills, obstructed the alert cell signal. Questions have also been asked about emergency protocols in the most affected camps and, especially, why Kerr County did not have its own warning system that is based on the water levels up, instead of depending on the NWS that does not have the technological capacity to predict rain events as sudden as the occurred.
Judge Rob Kelly, the highest rank elected officer of the County, admitted that a few years ago he had considered installing a system with water level and sirens indicators, similar to the warning equipment for tornadoes, but was ruled out by the residents for the price. In a few days since the disaster, some local residents have started a campaign to, now, install it.
In the main population of the area, Kerville, the city administrator, Dalton Rice, said the protocols were following, although he has promised a study on what happened. He also offered a simpler explanation of the facts: “Unfortunately, the rain hit at an inopportune and just in the most inopportune areas where the north and south arms of the river converge.” It is precisely the case of the Mystic Camp, where 750 girls were housed, which is located in a low and with a risk of flooding, next to the southern fork of the Guadalupe River and a ravine that feeds it. For now, 27 deaths have been confirmed in the summer camp, between girls and workers.
The unknown of personnel numbers in the regional meteorological offices
Floods have occurred in the midst of national concerns about personnel numbers in weather regional offices, when the hurricane season is grabbing strength and after the Trump administration has fired hundreds of NWS workers. In the two headquarters closest to the floods, that of San Angelo and San Antonio, around a fifth of the positions were vacancies, which has given wings to the argument that this affected the ability to foresight.
But the same offices have denied this. In, one of the workers assured that at that time they had extra meteorologists. While the office would have two people on duty in normal conditions, that night they had five. “It’s typical in any weather office: you endow staff for an event, you bring people and keep the one you are,” he said, implicitly defending the actions of his office. In addition, experts have pointed out that these events are becoming more intense and difficult to predict days in advance due to global warming, since existing models are not designed for these new and changing conditions.
Regardless, personnel problems go beyond the facts of that night. In that same office, that of San Antonio, one of the vacancies was that of the alert coordinator, who had retired in advance by Trump’s cuts in the NWS two months ago; one of 600 workers dismissed or retired from a national workforce of around 4,000. His work was precisely working with local populations officers to plan emergency and evacuation protocols.
Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat for New York and minority leader in the Senate, wrote a letter to the Commerce Department, which is in charge of the NWS, demanding “an investigation into the scope, breadth and ramifications” of the shortage of personnel in the key local stations. Republicans, meanwhile, have closed ranks and have condemned any questions about the facts that led to the catastrophe, such as the “politicization” of a tragedy.
