EPA / Samuel Core / Pool
Donald Trump’s unpredictability is one of his tricks to extract allies concessions in a strategy known as the Theory of the Crazy. Already with its enemies, the tactic is not so effective.
Asked last month if I was planning to join Israel in the attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump said, “I can do that. I may not do that. No one knows what I’m going to do“.
Trump let the world believe he had agreed with a two-week ceasefire to allow him to resume negotiations. And then bombarded the Iranians anyway.
A pattern is emerging: the most predictable thing about Trump is its unpredictability. He changes his ideas. He contradicts himself. He is inconsistent.
“[Trump] set up a policy formulation operation highly centralizedarguably the most centralized, at least in the area of foreign policy, from Richard Nixon, ”says Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
“And this makes political decisions more dependent on Trump’s character, preferences and temperament.”
Trump learned use your unpredictability for political purposesmaking it a fundamental strategic and political asset
Political scientists call you Crazy Theoryin which a world leader seeks to persuade his opponent that he is tempe to anything capable of extracting concessions. Successfully used, it can be a form of coercion and Trump believes it is bearing fruit, putting US allies where it wants.
But is it an approach that can work against enemies?
Attacks, insults and hugs
Trump began his second presidency embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin and attacking America’s allies. He insulted the Canada saying he should.
Said he was prepared to consider the use of military force to attach Granelândiaan autonomous territory of Denmark, the US ally. And he said the US should resume property and control of the Panama Canal.
This seemed to turn the page in 80 years of transatlantic solidarity. “What Trump did was raise serious doubts and questions About the credibility of America’s international commitments, ”says Trubowitz.
“My feeling is that most people in Trump’s orbit thinks that unpredictability is a good thingbecause it allows Donald Trump to leverage US influence for maximum gain, ”he says.“ This is one of its lessons when negotiating in the real estate world. ”
The predictability of unpredictability
Julie Norman, a policy professor at University College London, agrees that there is now a “doctrine of unpredictability.” “It’s very difficult to know what’s coming,” he argues. “And this has always been Trump’s approach.”
Trump successfully took advantage of his reputation for volatility to change the transatlantic defense relationship. And apparently to keep Trump by your side, some European leaders flattered and bowed.
Last month’s NATO summit in The Hague was an obsequious procession exercise. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte had previously sent Trump (or “Dear Donald”) a text message that Trump leaked.
“Congratulations and thanks for your decisive action in Iran, it was really extraordinary,” he wrote. About the next announcement that all NATO members agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, he continued: “You will reach Something no President In decades you managed to do it. ”
Anthony Scaramucci, who previously acted as Trump’s communications director in his first term, said: “Mr. Rutte, he is trying to embarrass him. He is literally Sitting on Air Force One laughing.”
And this can be weakness in the heart of Trump’s unpredictability doctrine: its actions can be based on Idea that Trump yearns for adduulation. Or looking for short-term victories, preferring them to long and complicated processes.
Adversaries resistant to charm and threats
So there is the question whether a doctrine of unpredictability or the theory of the madman can work in opponents.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an ally of Trump and Vance in the Oval Hall, later agreed to grant the USA profitable rights to the US explore Ukrainian mineral resources.
Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, apparently remains convinced in resisting Trump’s charms and threats. On Thursday, after a call, Trump said that It was “disappointed” for Putin not ready to end the war against Ukraine.
And Iran? Trump promised his base that in “eternal wars” in the Middle East. Your decision to attack nuclear facilities From Iran was perhaps the most unpredictable political choice of his second term so far. The question is whether you will have the desired effect.
Former British Foreign Secretary William Hague has argued that he will do the opposite precisely: he will make Iran more, and no less likely to seek the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Prof. Desch agrees. “I think now It is highly likely That will make the decision to seek a nuclear weapon, ”he says.“ So I wouldn’t be surprised if they remain discreet and do everything possible to complete the full fuel cycle and conduct a test [nuclear].
“I think the Saddam Hussein lesson And Muammar Khadafi is not lost to other dictators who face the US and one…
“Then the Iranians will feel desperately the need for final impediment and look at Saddam and Khadafi as negative examples and Kim Jong Un from North Korea as the positive example. ”
A loss of confidence in negotiations?
Looking to the future, unpredictability can Do not work against enemiesbut it is unclear if the recent changes it has produced among allies can be sustained.
Although possible, this is a process built largely on impulse. And there may be a concern that the US can be seen as a non -reliable mediator.
“People will not want to do business with the USA If they do not trust the US in negotiations, if they are not sure that the US will support them on defense and security issues, ”argues Norman.“ So the isolation that many in the world magnifies [Make America Great Again, Faça a América Grande de Novo em tradução livre, nome do movimento trumpista] They look, I think, will go out for the culathra. ”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, for example, said Europe now needs to overshadow from the US.
“The importance of the Chancellor comment is that it is a recognition that US strategic priorities are changing,” says Trubowitz. “They will not be as they were before Trump took office. So yes, Europe will have to become more operationally independent.”
“But more fundamentally, Trump triggered something… politics in the United States has changed. Priorities have changed. China is a bigger problem than Russia. This may not be true for Europeans. ”
And according to Milani, Trump is trying to consolidate American power in global order. “It is very unlikely that he changes the order that was established after World War II. He wants Consolidate the position of America In that order because China is challenging the position of America in that order. ”
But all this means that the imperatives of defense and security faced by the US and Europe are diverging. European allies may be pleased that, through flattering and real political changes, have kept Trump a largely beside them.
But unpredictability means that This cannot be guaranteed “And they seem to have accepted that they can no longer depend on the US to honor their historical commitment to their defense.”
And in this sense, even if the doctrine of unpredictability comes from a combination of conscious choice and very real traces of Trump, it is working, at least in some situations.
