It is seen as “symbolic” and “ineffective”, according to foreign trade expert Jackson Campos, director of institutional relations at AgL Cargo. For him, the gesture has more political weight than practical impact, aiming at the home scenario of the United States.
The announcement was made on Wednesday (9), through a letter addressed to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and published on the Truth Social Network. Trump justified the measure as retaliation for both the “very unfair trade relationship” with Brazil and the judicial accusation against former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Trump also stated that the US will start an investigation into alleged unfair trade practices by Brazil, focusing on the restrictions imposed on. The investigation, according to him, is justified by Brazil’s “continuous actions” against digital trade, which adds a new point of friction to the already delicate bilateral relationship.
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The international relations teacher Eduardo Mello highlights the relevance of the American market for national exporters and ponders that the measure can represent a hard blow to the foreign trade in Brazil.
“The US market is very large and a strategic target for many Brazilian producers. If these tariffs are actually implemented, the impact will be significant,” says Mello.
The teacher ponders that there is uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of the measure. “Trump has announced rates in the past that have not been applied, mainly because they end up affecting the American consumer himself. So you will still have to wait.”
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For Jackson Campos, from Agl Cargo, the tariff is a “symbolic” action with little practical effect. “By linking US protectionist fares to a trial in Brazil, President Donald Trump signals a symbolic retaliation, but which is totally ineffective from a practical point of view,” he says.
According to Campos, the Brazilian judiciary is independent and does not submit to external pressures, which makes this measure a gesture more focused on Trump’s internal electorate than to de facto trade policy.
“Who loses is the American people, who have nothing about it, and the Brazilian businessman, who will have to survive with legal and commercial insecurity,” added Campos.
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Market reaction
The Brazilian financial market immediately responded to the announcement. Ibovespa Futuro expired in August fell 2.23%, while the future dollar rose 1.76%, traded at $ 5.58. The sight index closed down 1.3%, and the commercial dollar ended the day at R $ 5.50, up 1.06%.
“Ibovespa’s future contracts have retreated at After Hours and the future dollar for August is already rising and it seems that we will also have drop effects on the exchange and pressure on the exchange rate at the opening this Thursday,” says Jorge Ferreira, Final Professor at ESPM.
According to him, if the rates are even implemented, exporting sectors such as the basic industry, textile and agribusiness should be relevant.
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The economist also warns of the impact on the macroeconomic environment. “The discharge in risk perception can press the interest curve and Brazil risk. In this scenario, the Central Bank can be forced to reassess future cuts in Selic.”
