O, done by the justification of “political persecution” a, rekindled the tension between Brazil and. The measure was interpreted as having only political motivation, allowing the government to present itself as the target of an articulation between the opposition and the US government. Since then, analysts discuss whether the episode can be.
What do other episodes of sanctions or external tariffs show? In some cases, especially when the national sovereignty narrative is well conducted. But empirical literature shows that the reaction of the electorate varies. When economic costs fall on articulated groups and there is no clear compensation, external pressure may turn against those who govern, even if the conflict has been caused by others.
The most recent example is Canada. With the liberal party falling in the polls and facing a difficult campaign against conservatives, the announcement of tariffs for Trump, accompanied by hints about territorial sovereignty,. The Trudeau administration activated the national unity speech, and Mark Carney was identified as an advocate of the Canadian economy. Research recorded an increase in approval and liberals won at the polls.
During the Trump administration they were framed by the regime as part of a political offensive against the country. One of Iranian influencers and noted that, after the hardening of sanctions, there was an increase in support to the regime, including moderate opponents. Nationalist rhetoric seemed to override the material cost.
But the same pattern is not always repeated. In Russia, the western sanctions imposed in 2014 did not result in unanimous strengthening of the government. One . Russians aligned with the regime blamed the West and maintained their support to. But in urban areas affected by economic deterioration, there was a drop in approval to the government. AlexSeev and Hale showed that they had a modest negative effect on Putin’s approval. The patriotism aroused by the annexation of Crimea caused a significant increase in government support, but the isolated sanctions did not generate a political reinforcement – there is a discreet wear.
A case in commercial retaliation that has generated negative effects comes from the United States. During with China, which began in the first Trump administration, directly reaching Republican electoral strongholds., And show that the most affected counties recorded a significant drop in republican candidates in the middle elections in 2018. The most impaired regions were the same that had supported Trump’s election two years earlier.
The tariff policy of the current US government. The measure announced by Trump has clear political content and. It is not yet known if the Lula government will be able to transform this episode into political capital, as it has happened in Canada, or will be interpreted as a sign of international fragility. What studies indicate is that the effects of external pressure depend on the context, the affected groups and the reaction capacity. And they do not always favor who is in power.
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