Previous estimate was 2.4%; government perspectives are more optimistic than financial market predictions
The Ministry of Finance’s SPE (Secretariat of Economic Policy) increased to 2.5% the projection of GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product) in Brazil. The assessment does not consider the potential impacts of raising on 50% US fare on products exported by Brazil.
The secretary said the review is due to the resilience of the labor market. The (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) announced that the unemployment rate, the lowest for the period in the historical series, started in 2012. The estimate is in the “Macrophiscal bulletin”, Published bimonthly by the Ministry of Finance. Here A (PDF – 2 MB).
SPE said there was better performance than previously expected in family consumption, even with the high Selic rate.
“Expected growth for agriculture has also been revised upwards, mainly reverberating the increase in IBGE estimates for production of corn, coffee, cotton and rice by 2025”these.
According to the report, the Brazilian GDP should slow down in the 2nd quarter compared to the previous one. After, the economy should advance 0.6% from April to June. The projection of the Secretariat considers a challenge of agricultural GDP.
Government’s perspectives (PT) are more optimistic than those of agents in the financial market. The median of the projections of economists is from.
Already the (Central Bank) expects one, according to projection released in late June.
External scenario
SPE said the direction of the world economy are uncertain. Said there “Risks related to the imposition of more disruptive trade policy by the United States”.
The economic team said that in recent weeks the prospect of greater fiscal deterioration in the US has contributed to raising uncertainty again.
The report said the surcharge of 50% of exported products in Brazil to the US has “only political reasons”And provoke“great insecurity”.
Also evaluates that the impact of the measure should be concentrated “In some specific sectors, influencing little growth estimate by 2025”.
