Ratinho Jr. ties with Bolsonaro and wins from Lula at PR

A survey by Paraná Research in the State of Paraná shows that the current governor of Paraná, (PSD), would draw with the former president (PL), within the margin of error, which is 2.5 percentage points, in dispute by Planalto in 2026. The governor has 33.6% of voting intentions before 34.4% of the former president.

In the confrontation with the President of the Republic, (PT), the Paraná Governor has 49% of voting intentions compared to 15.5% of the petista.

The simulated scenarios also include (PDT), (União Brasil), and (MDB).

Here’s the scenario with Jair Bolsonaro:

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 34,4%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 33,6%;
• Lula (PT) – 15,5%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 4,7%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 1,2%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,4%;
• They don’t know/didn’t think – 4,1%;
• None/whites/nulls – 6,2%.

Here’s the scenario with Lula:

• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 49%;
• Lula (PT) – 15,5%;
• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 15,5%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 5,1%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 1,0%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,4%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,9%;
• None/whites/nulls – 8,6%.

Here’s the scenario with Michelle Bolsonaro:

• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 44,7%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro – 21,4%;
• Lula (PT) – 15,5%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 5,0%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 1,9%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,3%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,1%;
• No/whites/null – 7,1%.

Here’s the scenario with Eduardo Bolsonaro:

• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 48,8%;
• Lula (PT) – 15,5%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 15,2%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 5,4%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 1,9%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,3%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,4%;
• None/whites/nulls – 8,5%.

2nd shift

The survey also tested the eventual scenarios in 2nd round. Here’s the results:

Lula x Jair Bolsonaro:

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ­­– 57,2%;
• Lula (PT) – 24%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,3%;
• None/whites/nulls – 12,5%.

Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro:

• Michelle Bolsonaro – 55,7%;
• Lula (PT) – 25%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,1%;
• None/whites/nulls – 13,2%.

Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas:

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 50,3%;
• Lula (PT) – 25%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,8%;
• None/whites/nulls – 18%.

Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro:

• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 49,9%;
• Lula (PT) – 26,2%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,6%;
• None/whites/nulls – 17,3%.

Lula x Ratinho Junior

• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 68,6%;
• Lula (PT) – 17,7%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,4%;
• None/whites/nulls – 9,2%.

Federal Government Evaluation

The survey also asked the interviewees how the current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) evaluates. Most (59.4%) claim to consider Lula’s “bad” or “bad” management. Positive assessment, ie “great” or “good”, adds 19%, while 20.5% say they find the current “regular” government.

Here’s the percentages:

• excellent – 5,4%;
• bom – 13,6%;
• regular – 20,5%;
• roomy – 10,1%;
• bad – 49,3%;
• do not know/did not opine – 1,1%.

More objectively, with only two answers options (approves/disapproval), 28.5% of voters say they approve the petista government, while 68.3% disapprove. Another 3.2% could not answer.

Here’s the percentages:

• approve – 28,5%;
• disapproval – 68,3%;
• do not know/did not opine – 3,2%.

Paraná research listened to 1,540 voters in 62 municipalities of Paraná, July 3-6, 2025. The degree of confidence is 95.0% and the margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

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