US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 50% rate on products in Brazil will probably increase the prices of beef used in US hamburgers, traders and analysts said on Thursday (10), with increasingly dependent food manufacturers in the midst of a fall in domestic production.
The proposal is a problem for US meat companies, which also face a scarce offering of cattle due to the suspension of liver animals from Mexico, caused by the bicheira fly, a carnivorous plague that is spreading south of the border.
The fare would reduce imports of Brazilian beef and force companies to seek supplies from other countries, while Trump expands their global trade war, analysts said.
“If this is not modified, you simply cease the importation of Brazilian beef to this country,” said Bob Chudy, consultant of US companies that import beef. “Not even a pound will be economical at these levels.”
US beef prices have rose to records this year, and production is designed to fall 2%to 26.4 million pounds after ranchers reduced the country’s beef herd to the smallest size by more than seven decades. A prolonged drought dried up the pastures used for pasture, making it very expensive for cattle feeding for many producers.
Food manufacturers have increased imports in response. Imports of Brazilian beef more than doubled in the first five months of the year compared to the same period of 2024 to 175,063 tons, according to the latest US government data. This represented 21% of total US imports.
A 50% rate from August 1 would raise the rate on Brazilian beef to about 76% for the rest of the year, according to livestock analysts.
“This is absolutely freezing the negotiation today,” said Chudy about the proposal. “We don’t know what to do as an importing community.”
US consumers also face accentuated increases in basic products, such as coffee and orange juice.
The US is the second largest commercial partner in Brazil, after China, and tariffs represent a major increase over the 10% rate announced by Trump in April. The 10% rate has already begun to slow the US imports of Brazilian beef in June, the traders said.
US companies import lean meat from Brazil and other countries to mix it with domestic production in the manufacture of hamburger meat. So far, consumers have shown the willingness to pay high prices for meat, but the new fare will be a new test for this demand.
“This rate is likely to increase the price of beef, a basic food for many, just after Congress votes for reducing food assistance to the most vulnerable consumers,” said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at Consumer Federation of America.
The rate forces importers to pay more for Brazilian beef or to look for other more expensive suppliers, said Austin Schroeder, Brugler Marketing & Management’s commodity analyst.
“This effectively helps to increase the price,” he said.
Meat importers may try to increase purchases from Australia, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay after the tariffs are entry into force on Brazilian products, according to analysts.
“There will not be much Brazilian beef from here,” said Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group. “This is the reality.”
