This week, Brazil entered the sights of Donald Trump’s tariff machine gun. Previously forgotten among the least retaliated countries,
In the corridors of the market, it is said that the approach of President Lula with the BRICS agenda may have precipitated the movement.
No one knows for sure about it, Trump is completely unpredictable…
It is still too early to define the derivatives of this agenda. The famous “Taco Trade” returns to the spotlight, famous “Trump Always Chickens Out” – An expression to make reference to the usual retreat of the US president in these hardest agendas, as seen with other countries.
Continues after advertising
In the short term, the dollar was appreciated against Real, the bag fell and the interest “opened”. In other words, “Kit Brasil” has deprecated itself.
For Lula and his team, who are already preparing for what they will face in 2026 in the election race, perhaps a scam of luck. After assertiveness in communication with the tax agenda being against “banks, bets and billionaires” have reflected positively in the latest government approval data, a chance to position itself in the face of national sovereignty.
Meanwhile, news from former President Jair Bolsonaro appears and indicates that he could do an interlocution for Trump to remove the tariffs. I could benefit from reading the other side of the table.
Many speculation, few facts…
The central point is: If in the world everything ends in pizza, in Brazil everything will end up in 2026 elections. The market observes the deterioration of the local scenario and ignores, but not because it is less important, but because of the weight that a political transition can carry.
Trump has a relevant influence on the world and, in other countries, he was advantageous for the government incumbent with these tariff attacks. For the market, or rather, myself, the clear (and desired) clear alternative is Tarcisio to apply.
Very early to say, some relevant dollar PUT (option) slips came out this week, with a clear election trade face. Let’s follow (together) and through this column, the next chapters.
My commitment as a sir market follows the same: agreeing or not, telling you what the country’s main managers and investors are thinking, what the consensus is, and what is under discussion behind the scenes. Be sure to follow!
