André Borges/EPA
Lula da Silva
Trump’s rates imposed on Brazil in support of Jair Bolsonaro can go out for Culatra and be seen as an attack on Brazilians’ sovereignty in choosing their government.
Donald Trump’s decision Tax in 50% Brazilian products In support of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) may have the opposite effect of politically favoring the government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), evaluate political analysts.
Specialists in international and Brazilian policy remember that external interference in domestic affairs usually Strengthen nationalist feelings.
On the other hand, some have considered that the country’s strong political polarization can limit this effect with more faithful supporters of pockets.
“Historically, external interference does not take well in Brazil (or any other country). Even Critics of Lula can see Trump’s attitude as a attack on national sovereignty And the independence of the judiciary, ”he wrote on the social network X Oliver Stuenkel, professor at Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and an affiliate researcher at Think-Tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
“Politically, the measure tends to strengthen nationalism and feed anti -American feelings in Brazil – especially if Lula can fit retaliation as a offense to the dignity of the country“He continued.
Faced with Trump’s decision, Lula summoned an emergency meeting with his team of ministers.
On social networks, the president reacted to the president’s attempt to interfere with the criminal proceedings that Bolsonaro faces in the Supreme Court, accused of leading a tentative of coup d’etat.
“The judicial process against those who planned the coup d’état is of jurisdiction only of the Brazilian justice and, therefore, is not subject to any kind of interference or threat that makes the independence of national institutions.”
In the text, Lula also said that “any unilateral rate of tariff elevation will be answered in the light of the Brazilian Economic Reciprocity Law“Law in force since April authorizing the government to retaliate against countries or blocks that impose commercial barriers to Brazilian products.
For Rafael Cortez, a political scientist at Consulting Trends, Bolsonaro support justification to raise trade tariffs shows an US attempt to influence the Brazilian electoral process, “as has happened in other countries.”
In her reading, Lula tends to benefit if she can balance the commercial and political issue. The expert points out that a climb in the tariff war between the two countries would have negative economic effects No country.
“Certainly, this political dimension is something positive for the Lula Administration,” he says, citing other countries in which the performance of the president benefited his antagonists.
“Those who are Trump’s opponent on the local plane wins when Trump and the other conservative leaders comment on domestic themes. This has, to some extent, in Mexico, in the elections of Canada, in the elections in Australia,” he says.
As the “Trump effect” has impacted elections in the world
The reactive impact on the American leader on national elections is already being called the “Trump effect” on political analysis.
In Canada, the liberal party took the election surprisingly in April, reversing the favoritism of the conservative party.
The turn took place after Trump returned to the US command with strong attacks on the neighboring country, including provocations about making Canada the 51st American state. The counterpoint to the new US government has become a central motto of the campaign.
The previous month, the Greenland center right opposition also surprised and won the general elections-a vote dominated by the independence agenda and by the trumpland promise to assume control of the semi -autonomous territory that today belongs to Denmark.
The DeMokraitat Party (Democrats), which Defends a gradual approach For independence, he was the most voted for Parliament and led the coalition government.
Already in May, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, of the Labor Party, won the reelection with wide advantage. The result was a turnaround compared to the beginning of the year, when research pointed to the popularity of albanese at historically low levels.
His victory was partly attributed to the Trump effect, as his opponent, Peter Dutton, was criticized during the campaign for having similar ideology that of the president of the United States.
In Mexico, the election occurred before Trump’s victory in the US. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum reached more than 80% approval After months in power, popularity driven by the strengthening of nationalist feeling against the actions of the new US president, according to political analysts.
‘Impact on Brazil can be limited, but determining’
For Rafael Cortez, a similar effect may occur in Brazil, but with less intensity, due to strong political polarization between the ruling and pocket fields.
Still, he points out, the impact can be decisive, in a tight election, where a group of center voters is in dispute.
Bolsonaro is ineligible After being convicted at the Superior Electoral Court, but the right field is expected to have a competitive candidate with his support, Note Cortez.
“Polarization creates some resilience in voting intentions or the image that political leaders have in society. In such a way that I see a marginal effect [da interferência de Trump no eleitor]”.
“That is, it is not a revolution, but it is an effect that may be enough to reverse [a baixa popularidade do presidente] e make the Lula government become the favorite In the 2026 election, ”he says.
For political scientist Creomar de Souza, executive director of political risk consultancy Dharma Politics, Lula received a “bouncing ball” like Trump’s decision and the “agenda of nationalism is in his hand.”
“But the point is to know if the government has a leg to kick the ball within the goal. get an organized responseunisone, ”he analyzes.
In an interview with Jornal da Record on Thursday, Lula did not rule out the possibility of trying to reelection: “It will depend on the right time to argue. There are many political parties for us to talk.”
Deputies and senators aligned with the government and opposition also reverberated Trump’s decision. On the scholarship side, the general tone was to blame the supposed persecution of Bolsonaro and the Lula administration for the new Trump rate.
The first in the Bolsonaro family to speak was Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), who wrote in X that Lula “managed to screw Brazil“.
Senator Humberto Costa (PE-PT) used the same social network to criticize opponents: “This is pockets: Play and cheer against Brazil“.
