Increased activity is on both sides, with an increase in the air attacks of Volodimir Zelenski forces
Igor Gielow
The intensity of the Ukraine war worsened after Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, despite the American’s farm promise that he would end the conflict in 24 hours.
Analysis of the world’s leading conflict database, organized by the American NGO Acled (armed conflict location project and event data) from public information, shows that acceleration is mainly pulled by drones and missile air attacks.
If in the first week of the Russian invasion, from February 24, 2022, there were 62 attacks, the number jumped 15 times at the beginning of last month. There were 920 incidents counted by Acled, 595 of them in Ukraine, and the rest, against Russian territory.
The arrival of Trump, who took over on January 20, was decisive. In the 151 weeks of the war until the inauguration, Acled only featured more than 1,500 violent episodes, which also include improvised explosions and other occurrences in five of them.
In the 22 weeks from the return of the Republican, only one was below this brand. In the first week of June, the record of 1,900 incidents was recorded, but the base only runs until the week of the 20th of that month.
The increase in activity is on both sides, with an increase in the air attacks of Volodimir Zelenski forces with drones and artillery.
In addition, the Ukrainians spent eight months occupying a piece of Kursk in the Russian south until they were expelled in April.
It all stems from Trump’s position of, ironically, trying to resolve the conflict. Both Moscow and Kiev seek to improve their military position in case of some accommodation.
He had first said that he would close the war on a day on March 4, 2023 at an American conservative event.
He repeated the bravata throughout the campaign in which he defeated Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s deputy, who gave up attempting reelection. He only admitted “to have been a little sarcastic” in the speech in March this year.
Shortly after assuming, he gave a radical turn in the position of the predecessor, removing unconditional support to Kiev and calling Vladimir Putin on February 12 to open direct negotiations. A week later, the heads of Washington diplomacy and Moscow held their hands on Saudi Arabia.
But Putin, suspicious of Trump’s intentions, did not give in and took the time to widen his offensive in Ukraine, taking the Lugansk region and advancing in places that are not even part of his official demand menu such as Sumi (North) and Dnipropetrovsk (South Center).
Meanwhile, Trump was publicly surprised by President Volodimir Zelenski, in the famous chat in the Oval Hall, and starred in a shot in the relationship with the Ukrainian. At the same time, it alternated Putin calls to criticism of the Kremlin chief, who opened recalcitrantes direct conversations with the Ukrainians.
In the latest chapter, after suspending the sending of Air Defense Weapons to Kiev and seeing Putin making the biggest attacks of the conflict, the American said he was disappointed with the Russian and promises an “important statement” that Moscow foresees as a ultimatum next Monday (14).
This came after Putin ordered the biggest action with drones and missiles, with 740 of them launched mainly against Kiev last Wednesday (9). In the early hours of Saturday was held the second largest attack, with 623 weapons released, 26 of them missiles. Two people died, according to Ukrainian authorities.
The actions crystallize the character change of conflict, which was dominated by battles and artillery bombings in the first two years. Until May 2024, there was always this kind of action more than air attacks, but accounting has been changed. In the first week of June, while the 920 drones and missiles hit targets, there were 590 armed clashes and 384 artillery bombings.
It is important to highlight the acled methodology, which counts actions in Ukraine also attacks that occurred in the 20% of the country that are occupied by Putin. Thus, Ukrainian missiles and drones against positions in these regions also enter the listing.
Indeed, the front line in Donetsk (east), which is about 60% taken by the Russians, is the focal point of war violence, concentrating until the end of June nearly 70,000 incidents – triple of neighboring Kharkiv, second.
Already the actions in Russia are of Ukrainian authorship, such as attacks with drone and the invasion of Kursk, with the exception of incidents listed as battles, such as the riot of Wagner Group mercenaries in 2023 or eventual attacks on military recruitment posts.
The arbitrary clipping made here excludes estimates from the dead because Acled uses the UN data, which the organizers themselves consider underestimated, from civil victims – just over 13,000, officially, and Moscow tells 6,800 killed in Kursk.
Military deaths, which characterize war as the worst on European soil since 1945, are a secret on both sides. Various estimates put Ukraine losses on over 100,000 soldiers and Russians in 250,000.
