Sector highlights economic and regulatory obstacles; demand grew 8.2% in 2025 in the annual comparison, but follows below the historical potential
The number of passengers carried with a ticket paid on domestic flights in Brazil in 2024 was lower than in 2015. According to data from (National Civil Aviation Agency), the last year’s number was 93.4 million, 2.8% lower than 96.1 million more than a decade ago.
“In other words, in 10 years, the Brazilian domestic market has not grown. 10 years ago I would never imagine that this would be true”said Rafael Araujo, executive director of air mesh planning.
The Brazilian air sector had periods of significant growth in the past, especially between 2009 and 2015. In the following years, however, it faced successive retractions, impacted by recession and political volatility.
The resumption began to gain breath from 2017. However, the global pandemic of Covid-19 frustrated the expectations of Brazilian airlines. The lowest point was in April 2020, when there was a 95%drop, with 399,812 passengers transported, compared to 7.9 million in April 2015, the best performance of the month in the historical series.
From January to May 2025 there was 8.2% growth in demand over the same period of 2024. Despite the recovery, the executive warned that the sector still operates short of the historical potential.
Barrel
Despite recent recovery, the Brazilian air sector still faces structural obstacles that limit growth. Araujo cited regulatory, economic and operational factors as barriers to market expansion.
Brazil has one of the largest domestic markets in the world, but has only 3 large airlines operating in the segment. This occurs even after the opening of foreign capital entry, which allows outside companies to operate with 100% control in the country. Still, there was no entry of new international players.
“How many foreign airlines came to Brazil? Zero”these. “Ryanair, very famous for promoting a great democratization of air transport around the world, has invested in airlines in Colombia and Mexico […] Why have they never invested in Brazil? ”declared.
Among the main problems pointed out by Araujo are the regulation and the complex legal environment.
According to the (Brazilian Association of Airlines), 98.5% of all against airlines in the world are concentrated in Brazil. Read the study published in September 2024 (PDF – 1 MB).
The study compared the judicialization in Brazil to the US market. According to Abear, the Brazilian sector registers 1 process every 0.52 flights (ie, comparatively, 1 flight in Brazil already carries in itself two lawsuits), while in the US the level is one action in justice every 2,585 trips.
Abear says that this number does not understand the reality of the Brazilian air sector, as 85% of flights operated by companies in the country land punctually, while 3% of trips are canceled. About 90% of Brazilian lawsuits refer to requests for moral damages.
“What we have problem is with the excess, or with a symmetry between what happens in the rest of the world and what happens in Brazil”said Araujo.
According to him, a “parallel business” has grown in the sector: specialized companies buy passenger lawsuits against air. These companies, often digital platforms, seek passengers who have had problems on flights and acquire their rights of action. If the process is favorable, they have the indemnity.
Although cool, the practice is criticized for encouraging excessive judicialization and pressing air costs, which may end up raising the price of tickets.
Araujo also highlights the economic volatility that directly affects the highly dolarized costs of the sector. Prices of items such as (aviation kerosene), leasing of aircraft and maintenance are linked to the US currency. This exposes Brazilian companies to foreign exchange oscillations and makes long term planning difficult.
“Economic volatility is something that has a lot here in Latin America in general. And that we have to learn ways to deal with”he declared.
Also mentioned:
- Population and economic concentration, which affect the distribution of the air network;
- Strong alternative of road modal;
- High tax burden.
According to the (International Air Transportation Association), the implementation of tax reform in Brazil can cause one up to 30% in demand for airline tickets.
The entity states that the proposal for the creation of VAT (Value Added Tax), with a tax rate projected at 26.5% for the sector, must significantly make the cost of tickets significantly and compromise air connectivity in the country.
The entity estimates that the average price of a home ticket, today around US $ 130 (R $ 743), rises to US $ 160 (R $ 914). For international tickets, the average value should go from $ 740 ($ 4,230) to US $ 935 ($ 5,345).
Redator Caio Barcellos traveled at the invitation of Gol Linhas Aéreas
