What should be a period of abundant harvest in March has become a painful lesson on how climate change are rewriting the Amazon’s agricultural calendar. In the Xingu region, in Pará, cocoa producers experience in real time a transformation that threatens centenary traditions of cultivation.
The extreme drought of 2024 was only the latest in a series of climate events that have been profoundly altering life in the region. The National Agency for Water and Basic Sanitation (ANA) in the Xingu and Iriri Rivers. What would usually be a six -month drought from June to November, extended far beyond expected, leaving whole communities isolated.
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The New Climate Calendar
For cocoa producers, this change in climate patterns represents much more than a seasonal inconvenient.
The cocoa, a plant originating from the Amazon itself, evolved to prosper under specific conditions: moderate heat, high humidity and regular rainfall. In the São Félix do Xingu region, the historical pattern indicates a rainy season of 7.2 months, from October to May, with a peak precipitation in March. But this natural calendar, which guided generations of farmers, is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
“Cocoa is too sensitive to changes,” explains Robson Brogni, from Ascurra, whose chocolates won multiple awards in 2025. “When the rain standard changes, when temperatures rise beyond normal, the plant feels immediately. And we feel in our pockets.”
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The temperatures in Altamira, which historically ranged from 20 ° C to 36 ° C, now often exceed 39 ° C during heat peaks between August and October. The dry season, which should last 4.8 months, has been extended, leaving the soil dry for increasing periods.
Alarming projections
Scientific data confirm the concerns of producers. A study by the 2022 National Institute for Space Research (INPE) projects that climate change can reduce between 37% and 73% of the appropriate areas for cocoa cultivation in the Amazon by 2050, depending on the global warming scenario. Reduction of precipitation and increased temperature are the main villains of this transformation, creating increasingly arid conditions in a region that has always depended on water abundance.
This new climate reality is forcing a silent revolution in the way cocoa is cultivated in Xingu. Families that for generations have followed the same agricultural calendar now need to adapt their practices almost year by year. The summer, which previously stretched until December with a crop until August, gave way to a late cycle, with expected harvest from March to August.
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Impact
The challenge is particularly complex because – is a high quality product, internationally recognized for its unique characteristics. Almonds produced at Gleba Assurini have intense flavor, high butter content and balanced bitterness, qualities that depend directly on the specific climatic conditions of the region.
The pressure on producers is intensified by the fact that the Xingu region represents 75.86% of all Pará production, which, in turn, accounts for more than half of national production. Pará reached an average productivity of 946 kg per hectare by 2024, almost four times higher than Bahia, which recorded 250 kg per hectare, according to data presented by Marcos Lessa, CEO and creator of the Chocolat Festival Xingu, which annually brings together more than 220 exhibitors in Altamira.
The impacts go beyond agricultural production. In the Riozinho do Anfrísio Extractive Reserve region, in the middle land, the riverside reports that areas that did not take fire recorded in 2024. The river, the main transportation and communication way for these communities, had its level dramatically reduced, isolating families and making it difficult to flow production.
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Global reflection
The situation in Xingu reflects a broader standard that is affecting the entire global cocoa chain. UNCTAD data show that the price of cocoa rose 136% between July 2022 and February 2024, a direct reflection of the scarcity caused by extreme weather events.
In West Africa, where about 70% of world crops are located, the combination of irregular rainfall, increased temperature and new moisture patterns is threatening the productivity of entire regions.
Studies show that deforestation of the Xingu River region can reduce by 7% the average historical annual precipitation of the state of Mato Grosso, demonstrating how forest destruction in a region can affect the climate of distant areas. For cocoa producers, this means that forest preservation is not just an environmental matter, but a direct economic necessity.
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Adaptation strategies
Given these challenges, producers are experiencing cocoa varieties more resistant to heat and drought, implementing irrigation systems and exploring agroforestry techniques that help maintain soil moisture. The agroforestry system not only contributes to the conservation of soil moisture and protects plants from excessive heat, but also offers alternative sources of income through other forest crops and products.
“We have learned that we can no longer depend only on cocoa,” explains Robson Brogni. “We need to diversify, create systems that are more resistant to change.”
International organizations like Swissco warn that adaptation to climate change is an unavoidable challenge for the entire cocoa sector. Extreme temperatures, pests, irregular rain and prolonged dried stations are already affecting both volume and quality of production on a global scale.
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For 2025, Brazil is expected to produce about 300,000 tons of cocoa, with the northern region maintaining the leadership and representing 56.4% of national production, according to Lessa. But these numbers depend directly on the capacity of producers to adapt to new weather conditions. Xingu, as the main producing region, will be fundamental to determine whether these goals will be achieved.
The ongoing climate transformation in Xingu represents a microcosm of the challenges that tropical agriculture will face in the coming decades. The ability to adapt demonstrated by local producers can serve as a model for other regions, but also highlights the urgency of coordinated actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change on global food security.
