The crisis caused by the 50% tariff for Brazil, justified by what the US president called “witch hunt” against (), shook the presidential pretensions of (Republicans) to 2026.
On the one hand, the governor of trying to fix the damage of the episode, which shuddered his relationship with pockets. On the other hand, in their candidacy for the Planalto, they began to question their independence from the same group.
A Sheet He talked to the governor’s allies, who see him in a delicate situation, aggravated by the fact that he had limited political experience – it was launched to the Bandeirantes Palace when he was a technical minister of infrastructure by then -president Bolsonaro.
These interlocutors were surprised by what they call the governor, which has been anointed by business sectors as the representative of what they call a moderate right to run for presidency against (PT) next year.
For them, Tarcisio should have kept away from the crisis, making himself available to talk due to the economic weight of São Paulo, from Brazilian exports to.
In 2025, Embraer -produced aircraft are the main exported product from SP to the US. Then come fruit juices and engineering equipment. After Trump’s announcement, the sector, which is at risk of collapse.
The governor decided not only to attack Lula in his first demonstration, but also to go to Brasilia and, as he release the Sheetwith the proposal to release the former president to go to the US negotiate with Trump.
Bolsonaro has his passport retained due to the fear of escape while facing the trial of the coup plot, and Tarcísio’s proposal was seen as a bold by ministers of the Supreme.
At least two heavyweights in the economy sought people close to Tarcisio to question their independence from the former head. They wanted to know if, when supporting him, they would actually be electing Bolsonaro and his political rear in the center.
With the poor repercussion of the crisis, skillfully explored by Lula as he tacking the homeland traitors, Tarcisio began to modulate the speech on Saturday (12).
He has been trying to remove the political component and focus on the interest of companies and agribusiness of São Paulo, which will be harshly affected if Trump is not bluffing and import fares come into force in August.
Proving the impossible of his situation, with the cap of Trump’s ideological movement, Tarcisio has displeased the surroundings of his former head. It has been called in the most radicalized networks of what also makes your eventual plans difficult to try the plateau.
The governor says he will only leave the president if Bolsonaro will anoint him publicly. Already the family of the former Mandator wants a name with his surname in the dispute, the son Eduardo or the wife Michelle being the most quoted.
In this, they are supported by their head of their party, the PL, – this interested in the huge party fund that the group’s vote provides to elect parliamentarians.
Tarcisio will have to walk on this razor now. The scenario, emphasizes one of its most moderate allies, is quite fluid and there is a long time for the definitions of next year’s dispute.
The search for reelection is seen as easy for the governor, according to research, and defended by wings of his government.
But in the event that the crisis between Lula and Trump climbing, affecting long -term items that are overshadowed in the current debate by Brazil’s deficit in the US business relationship, such as investments, wear progressively weaken the petista.
Bolsonaro will gain nothing from it, as he is glued to the American’s initiative, but Lula has to lose. In its favor, the crisis doubles the bet of the Plagueiro Plateau, now.
The president was brought to this in the clash with the financial operations tax center, which made Lula come into “us against them” mode typical of his campaigns. Now the “they” has grown in size with Trump.
In this scenario, Tarcisio may be spared from the fire he receives today, with the dilution of the crisis over time. But, as a Supreme Minister said heard about the episode, we are in Brazil. Here, the weeks last months in politics.
