The Terrorist threat He has experienced a clear evolution in the last decade in Europe, essentially going from attacks of Islamic State to actions of individuals who go to action after a radicalization process that in general perform alone and in which he more and more plays a key role internet, and especially social networks and the latest technological advances.
That is the main conclusion of Report ‘Evaluation and impact of jihadist terrorism on European security during the last decade (2014-2024)‘published by the International Observatory of Studies on Terrorism (Oiet) and prepared by its director, Carlos Igualada, which largely coincides with the evaluation of the threat made by the Department of National Security (DSN) in its latest National Security Report 2024.
After the ‘mazazos’ that first supposed the Paris attacks of November 2015 and those of Brussels in March 2016 Then, in both cases of cells coordinated by Islamic State, as of 2017 there is a transformation “towards tactics of low complexity terrorism and low sophistication in which the solitary actors They have become the main figures, “he says.
In the opinion of Igualada, this evolution is largely motivated “by Improvements regarding counterterrorism “ But also for “the Loss of central Islamic State capacities“, which ultimately would see its self -proclaimed ‘caliphate’ disappear in 2019, and has resulted in” the attacks committed on European soil are much less lethal and sophisticated “since then.
This way of acting was inspired by the instructions given from the Islamic State that, who could not emigrate to Syria and Iraq, act wherever they were and with the means they had within their reach. Result of these guidelines were the Nice attackin July 2016, in which 85 people died, or the perpetrated in December of that year against a Christmas market in Berlin through the same modus operandi and with the result of 12 dead.
Of organizational structures on individual initiatives
Both attacks, “under the ideological influence of the Islamic State,” showed individual initiative, encouraged by an ideology available online and easily accessible“.
From then on, “low complexity attacks, committed with vehicles that attack crowds or the use of White weapons They have become recurring tactics, “he says matched, which affects that” these attacks not only require little training, but also need any planning or logistics. “
From the Barcelona and Cambrils attacks In August 2017, carried out by an independent cell inspired by Islamic State and left a total of 16 dead, according to the director of the Oiet, “no terrorist action has been given again that has left more than five fatalities” in Europe.
This change generated a new challenge to those responsible for the European anti -terrorism fight: ” Early detection of radicalized individuals that could go unnoticed until the moment of the attack, “emphasizes its report, collected by Europa Press, affecting that” the speed of radicalization processes, often driven by the intensive consumption of digital content, hindered prevention. “
“The ease of access to materials and the self -adaptation capacity, favored by the use of digital platforms, has expanded the spectrum of possible perpetrators and their profiles,” equalized warns, which stresses that “they are currently immersed in jihadist activities from minors to retired persons who carry out the commission of a wide variety of crimes related to terrorism.”
The threat of solitary actors
“The so -called lonely actors, generally self -employed,” the DSN agrees in its report, consulted by Europa Press, “are still the main endogenous vector (terrorist threat in Spain) due to the difficulty for its detection, which increases the chances of success in its potential attacks. “
Although in general in their actions they employ “Easy accessing rudimentary methods” Against vulnerable or opportunity objectives, in some cases “they show a greater will to sophistication through the use of firearms and explosives,” admits the department, which depends on the presidency of the Government.
In its report, the DSN also attracts attention to the importance of cyberspace not only to maintain contact with followers or get instructions, but mainly “as propaganda tool for the collection of supporters“, as well as for the dissemination of manuals and another type of material for the preparation of attacks.
In this sense, it highlights the capacity demonstrated by both Al Qaeda and by Islamic State “to reinvent and transfer its message getting the propaganda to be its most efficient system, after the loss of territorial control”, something to which its decentralized character has also contributed, with its subsidiaries in different areas assuming a preponderant role.
As matched, Islamic State Jorasán (ISKP), the subsidiary that operates in Afghanistan, has become the last example of franchise capable of attacking beyond its traditional scenario, as evidenced by the attacks perpetrated in 2024 in Kermán (Iran) and in Moscow. In the opinion of this expert, this subsidiary “supposes, because of its potential and ability to commit high lethal terrorist actions, a threat to Europe equal or even greater than that represented by its matrix.”
Main challenges of the anti -terrorist struggle
Thus, the director of the Oiet, who depends on Covite, identifies what he considers that are the main challenges of those responsible for the anti -terrorism struggle in Europe, starting with the need to “combat the terrorism model exercised by solitary actors that are authorized through the consumption of propaganda in online environments and that decide to take the step towards the exercise of violence.”
In this sense, it defends the need to “develop and implement Effective radicalization prevention programs Especially among the youngest to try to prevent more and more European minor from being involved in jihadist activities after embraceing the extremist ideology. “
On the other hand, it draws attention to the need to dedicate greater efforts and attention to prison centerswhich considers “suitable spaces for the proliferation of extremism and to carry out terrorist collection and indoctrination tasks”, after having found several cases in recent years, in addition to the impact that this has once “these radicalized individuals are reincorporated to society” when they leave prison.
Likewise, it is committed to “monitoring and detaining foreign terrorist combatants who are returning to their countries of origin after having fought under the Islamic State Flag and that have extreme radicalization, with potential capacities to radicalize other individuals under formation and experience in the management of armament and military tactics.”
