If the 30% rate on products imported from the United States reported by the United States is indeed imposed, there would be a negative impact around 0.4 percentage point (PP) on the bloc’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which could carry the European economy back on the edge of recession. The assessment is by Carsten Brzeski and Inga Fechner, Global Head of Macro and Senior Economist of Ing, respectively.
In a report released on Sunday, 13, Brzeski and Fechner claim that this is not the base scenario of the institution, which expects some kind of agreement between US and EU before August 1, when the surcharge would come into force. Negotiations are expected to result in a 10% universal tariff for the block, with sectoral rates between 20% and 25%. As a result, the effective fare would be close to 20%. “Is this a convinced statement? No,” analysts pondered.
“Tax Saga”
According to Ing, a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and the bloc would not mark the end of what they called the “tariff saga.” Commercial agreements are usually composed of “hundreds of pages”, and the talks around them do not last weeks, but months and years, the bank notes. “Therefore, any ‘big, beautiful agreement’ to be achieved in the coming weeks will not be guaranteed that it will last,” says Brzeski and Fechner.
In the unstable current commercial scenario, no solution can be given for certain, evaluates Ing. For the institution, the next developments depend entirely on the “whims” of the Trump administration. With a more volatile global trade, the departure will be the search for new business partners, as the European Union has already done, analysts say, to whom a decisive time in the commercial offensive is close, after the announcement of the 30% American fare over the EU and also about Mexico.
About the Latin American country, English analysts say there is the prospect of an imminent deal with the US. In relation to the European bloc, which postponed retaliation, following the next three weeks will be crucial, they reinforce. “Even if an agreement is achieved, it may not bring lasting certainty to global trade.”
