Report with market estimates indicates a slight retreat of 0.01 percentage point in the IPCA; Projection for the exchange rate is the dollar to close the year at $ 5.65
The market slightly reduced the projection for inflation by 2025. BC (Central Bank) released on Monday (14.Jul.2025) the Focus Bulletin with a 5.17% estimated IPCA (National Consumer Price Index.
The report is a reduction of R $ 0.5 in the dollar quotation. The previous week, the forecast for 2025 was $ 5.70; This week, is $ 5.65. This is the report (PDF – 911 kB).
For the Selic rate, the market maintained 15% per year to the end of 2025, with no changes compared to the previous week. This is the largest level since 2006, when it reached 15.25% per year.
The expectation, according to the Focus report, is that Selic only reaches 10% per year in 2028, with a gradual reduction over the coming years.
Regarding GDP (Gross Domestic Product), it continued at 2.23%. Already in 2026, there is a drop, compared to this year, to 1.89%. However, in the weekly comparison, there was an increase from 1.86% to 1.89% in the new report.
What is Focus
The report has been released every Monday and has summarized, since 2000, the statistical projections of economists and market operators consulted by the Central Bank. It is possible to know the institutions that get it right.
