In recent weeks, it has become commonplace to find writer announcing the end of the era ().
Articles about and on disputes around the Union budget corroborated this reading, suggesting that the president’s electoral career was close to the end, which Lula would have no chance of reelection and, therefore, would already be treated with a certain disregard in the political court of Brasilia. It was even said that the president’s coffee was already served cold.
I don’t know if it’s anxiety or if, in these cases, it speaks louder to simple aversion to the government, but experience and prudence indicate that, with more than a year to the presidential election, no one should risk it to vatify its outcome.
In October 2017, the then former President Lula-convicted but not yet arrested-appeared in (). In scenarios without Lula, Marina Silva (network) was ahead of Bolsonaro. We all know that the result was quite different.
The same goes for the 2014 electoral cycle. In 2013, many also sentenced the end of Dilma Rousseff (PT), on the occasion of the. Still, the former president beat Aécio Neves (PSDB) in the second round of 2014.
It is never known whether a war will be out of war or if a climate disaster will affect the country, whether the government of its agenda, or if the United States president, helping to improve the popularity and positive assessment of the government and the president – as it has recently happened in Canada.
It is precisely because of the uncertainties of the national and international political and economic scenario, and the existence of legitimate and fair electoral practices, which do not offer disproportionate advantages to any candidate, who risks predictions about the government’s outcome and the chances of the presidential chair occupant in advance is a high risk bet.
Little has changed in the last two weeks in the relationship between the president and the congress. The conflict points are still present, but the speech that the government is knocked out practically disappeared.
Now, the news focuses on the successful government communication strategy, both in the case of IOF and in defense of national sovereignty and that of Brazilian exports announced by the Trump government.
Lula has chances in 2026? Yes. Analyzing retrospectively, all presidents who disputed the reelection performed as competitive candidates. Will Lula win the election? It is early to say. We don’t even know who will be your opponents. And often the result not only depends on the candidate’s performance, but also on opponents’ performance.
In politics, it is still too early to serve the president’s cold coffee. As they show past, many events with the potential to interfere with the electoral game are yet to come until 2026. For now, the most wise thing is not to sentence the end of the government or the chances of electoral success of the president.
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