Itaú Unibanco calculates that if tariffs 50% imposed on Brazil by USA enter into force on August 1, 2025, the impact on the growth of Commence (Gross Domestic Product) It will be between 0.2 to 0.6 percentage point over 12 months.
According to the bank, such estimates involve a high degree of uncertainty. This is because they may vary according to the hypotheses of relocation of trade of products taxed for other destinations and eventual retaliation, which is why the institution chose not to include in its base scenario at this time.
For now, Itaú maintains its upper projection of 2.2% for closed GDP by 2025 and from 1.5% to 2026, as reported this morning, signed by chief economist Mario Mesquita.
Despite maintenance, he revised the “neutral for bassist” risk balance, due to the weaker data of activity observed in the second quarter of this year and the potential impacts on growth in the face of tariff imposition.
Regarding the GDP of the second quarter, Itaú says that the expectation of 0.5% expansion in the margin and growth of 2.4% in the interannual confrontation has bias is low.
In May, he mentions, the transformation industry recorded its second consecutive fall, while the expanded retail, excluding the atacarejo, presented stability after a strong retraction in April.
In addition, he mentions that his daily activity indicator (Idat- Activity) also pointed out a weak performance in June, especially the annual service sector retreat (the first since October 2023) and the drop in income-sensitive goods.
Itaú points out, however, that, despite the performance below the expected second quarter and the risk of tariffs, there are factors that can boost economic activity in the last six months of 2025.
“The release of precatory, concentrated in July, and acceleration in the concessions of the new private consignment has the potential to stimulate consumption in the second half of the year, partially compensating for the weak performance of the beginning of the period,” he says.
As for the projection for the GDP of 2026, Itaú also states that it continues to monitor the possibility of implementing countercyclic fiscal and parafiscal policies, which could be adopted to mitigate a possible slowdown in economic activity next year.
Unemployment
Itaú maintains its unemployment rate projections by 6.4% to 2025 and 6.9% for 2026. Short -term data reinforces its expectation that the labor market should remain resilient in the short term, mainly maintained by the formal sector.
