He was going to be the Savior of Ukraine, but no. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, promised to end the Russian invasion “In 24 hours”but in the week they are fulfilled six months From its return to the White House there are no visions of advances … although today an important announcement is expected in this regard, says the president himself.
For now, the conversations between the Russian president, and Trump, held since February, have altered “ostensibly” the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, and Research Assistant of the Strategic Studies Program of the Observer Research Foundation. A “key” feature of these months, however, is North American’s commitment to “disconnect from the conflict, requesting Europe that intensify your support for the defense efforts of Ukraine. ” “Partial normalization of ties”. No changes in the field, yes.
After the conversations, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, three years after the first peace summit. “It should be noted that, unlike the previous Peace Summit, which culminated with the joint writing of a statement on both parties, the current conversations still They have not produced any significant progress Towards a high fire, since their respective demands have remained unchanged, “recalls the analyst. With new rounds of scheduled conversations and a fundamental contradiction in the way in which both parties receive their security interests,” the prospects of ending the war this year are still remote. Until now, diplomacy has continued A pattern of one step forward, two steps back“, finds.
“Until now, diplomacy has followed a pattern of one step forward, two steps back”
Russia controls more than 19% of the Ukrainian territory. By May 2025, the Russian Army recovered the lost territories in the Ukrainian Kursk offensive the previous year. Since then, Russian forces have advanced beyond Kursk, entering the region of Amounts In the southeast, with the aim of creating a security zone, he says, based in Washington. That same month, the Russian forces launched their summer offensive, where they registered Gradual advances in Donetsk, Járkov and Zaporiyia regions.
In June, the Russian forces obtained The control of 566 additional square kilometers. According to reports, between June 2024 and May 2025, Russian forces only obtained 1% of the Ukrainian territory. Russian forces have greatly increased their presence along the conflict line, forcing Ukrainian forces to disperse and, therefore, exploiting the gaps in the lines. “Despite the ascending trajectory of Russian advance in Ukraine, The battlefield has not changed radically since last year“adds the expert.
In addition, both parties have increased the use of unmanned aviation systems, that is, drones, in 2025. President Putin requested the increase in drone production in April this year. Last year, there were more than 1.5 million drones, which was considered insufficient. Moscow drone production capabilities have improved significantly. The monthly production of drones in Russia has increased: in May 2025, Russia produced 17% more drones than in the previous months. On the contrary, Ukrainian forces have experienced an adaptation. In a movement to improve efficiency and adapt to the requirements of modern war, a New umbrella of command by the force of the unmanned drone system of Ukraine, which aims to join the branch with other drone units in the Ukrainian army.
“A key advantage of Russia is The territory that controls in Ukrainein addition to your Ability to sustain prolonged military operation and, at the same time, guarantee internal macroeconomic stability. On the other hand, the relief of the is an incentive to obtain certain concessions of Russia, “he recalls.
“A key advantage of Russia is the territory that controls in Ukraine, in addition to its ability to sustain a prolonged military operation and, at the same time, guarantee internal macroeconomic stability”
Since Trump assumed the position, the number of shot drones has doubled. According to reports, Russia launched more than 5,300 drones attacks against Ukraine only in June 2025. A key difference that is reflected in drones operations is that Russian forces have had an advantage in the volumes of cheaper attack systems, which allows them flexibility in attack capacities. Meanwhile, military analysts argue that “Ukraine has better attack capabilities, that is, dynamic objectives, precision and integration objectives”.
The power of drone units has been greater than that of infantry and artillery operations. This can be reflected in the recent Ukrainian attacks to the Russian air bases in Saratov, Murmansk, Riazán, Ivanovo, Amur and Comest of Irkutsk Oblast, which, according to the estimates, destroyed seven strategic bombers Tu-95 MS (capable of carrying nuclear weapons), an early alert and control plane of long-range bombers Tu-22 m3.
These attacks do not affect Russia’s abilities in the Ukraine campaign, but certainly They will affect the long -range aviation capabilities of Russiasince it will have a decade to rebuild lost assets.
Improved European support
Even with the ongoing conversations, the commitment to bring war to a negotiated solution is still low. The promised military aid during the mandate of former US president continues to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, the Trump administration is not interested in announcing a significant aid package for Ukraine. Meanwhile, as American help to Ukraine It has been reducedEuropean states have promised more help. Only in March and April 2025, European countries allocated 12.2 billion US dollars for military aid and 11,500 million US dollars for humanitarian aid. In contrast, between February 2022 and January 2025, the EU and the United Kingdom promised only 13,000 million and 9,000 million US dollars for military aid, respectively.
This sudden increase, together with the agreement of NATO countries to increase military spending by 2035reiterates Europe’s commitment to counteract the perceived Russian threat. Even with the increase in European support, kyiv will be affected by the decrease in US military aid. Recently, the Pentagon suspended the shipments of the Patriot Mim-104 missile systems and the Hellfire AGM-114 missiles, alleging problems related to the decrease in reserves. The patriot missile system, although limited in number at the Ukrainian Arsenal, is essential to intercept attacks with Russian ballistic missiles. Another aspect that will affect Ukraine is limited access to American satellite intelligence, an access that European allies cannot match. However, the externalization Of these systems and technologies through Europe, but this transition is easier to say.
“Ukraine has better attack capabilitiesas dynamic objectives, precision and integration objectives. The power of drone units has been superior to that of infantry and artillery operations, “insists the text.
With European nations assuming costs, Ukraine can maintain its short and medium term defense, but will not even approach the support kyiv received under the Biden administration. Even while Washington’s participation decreases in the conflict, Trump, on multiple occasions, He has expressed his discontent with the slowness of the negotiations and has threatened to impose additional sanctions on Moscow. However, both parties have failed to reach an agreement during the two rounds of conversations. “A key advantage of Russia is the territory that controls in Ukraine, by Do not mention the ability to sustain a prolonged military operation while guaranteeing internal macroeconomic stability. On the other hand, the relief of sanctions is an incentive to obtain certain concessions of Russia. “Curiously, the perspective of a relief of sanctions is not a factor of attraction for Russia to make concessions, despite being affected by more than 29,000 sanctions. The Russian economy has absorbed the impacts of these punitive measures and has developed some resilience.
In addition, Moscow is aware of the complexity of revoking sanctions; American sanctions would require the approval of the Congress, which results difficult Considering that Republicans have a close majority in the House of Representatives.
On the other hand, the EU continues to announce SANCTION PACKAGES against Russia. Therefore, none of the parties has found points of convergence at the negotiating table. That said, the negotiations so far have given rise to some agreements, as evidenced by the release of a considerable number of prisoners of war on both sides and the abstention of attacking ships in the black Sea.
In the second round of conversations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, both parties exchanged their respective memoranda, which finally they were rejected by both parties. While Putin has expressed his disposition to a third round of negotiations, “it is improbable that an agreement is reached soon. ”
The increasing commitment of the EU and the United Kingdom with the defense of Ukraine, along with the continuous territorial conquests of Moscow, further complicates the situation, since the latter “could cause a Moderate readjustment of American position against Russia by sending military supplies to Ukraine through European countries. “Even so, the fact that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have gathered again after more than three years is notable In itself. “That said, the reality of the battlefield tells a different story. Without a real real fire, it is unlikely that any agreement reached at the negotiating table lasts“, Concluye Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash.
