Inflation in Slovakia, which accelerated to the highest value in June in June, probably reached its peak. In the coming months, it should still be around the current level and could slow down at the end of the year. This is expected by economic analysts in response to current data published on Tuesday by the Statistical Office (SO) of the Slovak Republic. According to the National Methodology, prices increased by 4.3 % year -on -year and by 0.2 % compared to May.
“The June acceleration of prices to one and a half -year maximum is probably the pinnacle and inflation should no longer grow. Almost all the basic components of the consumer basket, including food, services or fuel, contributed to this acceleration, ” approached Analyst of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Branislav Karmažin.
According to him, inflation measured by the National CPI index should be 4.2 %nearby for three months. “At the end of the year, however, the weakening demand and the slowing of the salary growth rate should have suppressed price pressures. The risk of the prices of inputs and cost items (agrocomodities, production prices, wholesale energy prices) should continue to risk,” added Karmajin.
“The basic price growth narrative this year does not change, this year’s price growth is widely distributed across different groups of goods and services and is powered by a higher value added tax (VAT), which was introduced as part of a consolidation package,” Analyst of Slovenská sporiteľňa Marián Kočiš.
According to him, a key factor affecting inflation this year is also the re -introduction of a price ceiling to energy, which has contributed to the decline in inflation, but also complicates the consolidation process. He recalled that consumption is currently slightly subdued and households are considering some purchases, which may have an anti -inflationary effect.
He also expects inflation to reach its peak in June. “In the second half of the year, we assume a slight slowdown in the year -on -year rate of price growth, although during the summer months inflation should be around or just above 4 %. In the fourth quarter of 2025, year -on -year inflation could fall below 4 %,” He advised Kočiš.
The longer -term risks for inflation are associated with world trade outlook, as reciprocal duties would significantly increase prices as well as domestic consolidation in some imported goods, assumes Analyst 365.Bank Tomáš Boháček. “Given the direction of austerity measures towards the revenue side and the ambition of even higher consolidation in the next than this year, I do not assume that the mix of measures would not be proinflative. added.
