The decision of Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to validate the presidential decree that raised the financial operations tax (IOF), contributes to the government’s strategy of maintaining compliance with the 2025 primary result target. The minister suspended only the collection of the risk of the risk, maintaining the rest of the elevation.
The measure comes at a time of reconstruction of the fiscal base, after the government loses the forecast of raising $ 12 billion with the increase in IOF, which had been fully suspended by preliminary decision. Now, the Executive resumes part of the expected extraordinary collection for the year. The economic team estimates a loss of R $ 450 million with the withdrawal of IOF on the drawn risk.
In addition to the STF decision, the government has made advances in Congress. The House approved the substitute of the president of the house, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to. It also passed by and includes them staggered in the tax framework from 2027, with 10% per year, which relieves short -term budget pressure. A, but it needs to be approved again in the house for real.
Another measure considered relevant is the possible approval of Provisional Measure 1.303, which provides for changes in taxation of financial investments, including the end of the exemption of agribusiness letters (LCA) and real estate (LCI). According to LCA Consultoria, the approval of the MP, which is still being processed in Congress, gains strength with the maintenance of the IOF and helps to compose a package that restores minimal conditions to support the tax framework by 2026 and maintain the adjustment trajectory in public accounts.
IFI sees more favorable tax scenario
. According to the July Fiscal Follow -up report (RAF), the current primary deficit fell from 2024 to 2025, and the macroeconomic environment, although still challenging, shows signs of less imbalance.
IFI warns that the budgetary execution of the first semester was limited, with expenses and a real reduction of 7.4% in Bolsa Familia, resulting from the fall of beneficiaries and the average benefit amount. For the entity, this combination favors the necessary structural adjustment to ensure the feasibility of the framework in the coming years.
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IFI estimates that IOF revenue and investment MP would not be necessary for the government to fulfill this year’s primary result target “for a relatively tight margin”, but may serve as a mattress in case of more marked slowdown in economic activity.
Similar analysis of XP, which was already projecting at the beginning of the month that the lower limit of the 2025 tax target would be met even without the R $ 12 billion of the initially planned IOF. The projection considers the maintenance of high levels, extraordinary revenues such as state dividends and oil auctions, as well as a lower execution of personnel and discretionary expenses.
For analysts, the biggest difficulty for the executive lies in compliance with the fiscal target from 2026. The loss of revenue at the risk, for example, jumps to $ 3.5 billion next year, which helps to give the tone of the challenge.
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XP projections made before the resumption of the IOF decree by Moraes indicates the need to block R $ 10 billion in discretionary expenses, with a risk of rise in social programs costs such as Bolsa Familia and Vale-Gás, which may require new adjustments next year.
