The trajectory of the reelection of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) again gained breath in the political scene. According to analysis by LCA Consultores released on Thursday (17), although it is still early to say that Lula resumed the condition of favorite for 2026, “the tide turned to his and the government.”
According to the analysis of the consultancy, the turn has been the first since June 25, when Congress overthrew the government’s decrees that increased IOF and Centrão parties began to rehearse a return movement of ministries. At that point, the government was cornered, and the dominant perception in the political and economic media was that Lula’s reelection was sinking.
Since then, however, a sequence of facts has changed the environment. Starting with the communicational turn of the Planalto Palace, which bet on one – in reference to Lula’s offensive against the richest, Congress and even US foreign policy.
The tension was catalyzed by the episode that reinforced the nationalist speech of the government and had a positive impact on opinion polls.
Executive victories
The change of scenario has gained muscles with judicial decisions and legislative victories. STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes, suspending only the collection about the drawn risk.
In Congress, the replacement of the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), for, without major changes to the original text. Another advance was the approval of one. The proposal provides that these expenses are gradually incorporated into the tax rules from 2027, with 10% per year. The PEC will still need to be appreciated again by the Senate.
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In addition, for the home, it has increased the likelihood of approval by MP 1.303, which compensates for part of the loss of revenue with the reduction of IOF through the taxation of exempt assets, such as Agro and Real Estate Credit letters (LCAS and LCIs), which helps the government to recompose revenues and support the target of primary result.
Recovery popularity
Alongside the institutional rearticulation, public opinion indicators also show reversal of the negative trend. QUESTE Survey released on Friday (25) shows Lula again in front of second round simulations to 2026: 43% to 37% against Jair Bolsonaro, 41% to 37% against Tarcísio de Freitas and 43% to 36% against Michelle Bolsonaro.
The performance also remains solid in the face of names such as Ratinho Jr., Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and Eduardo Bolsonaro, all with lower percentages in the simulations.
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In LCA’s evaluation, Lula’s decision to directly confront former US President Donald Trump contributed to the recovery of the presidential image.
The 50% tariff over Brazilian products was used by the government to reinforce Lula’s image as a defender of national sovereignty and Brazilian productive chains, especially in exporting states such as São Paulo and Paraná.
Still far from the finish line
Despite the sequence of advances, the LCA ponders that it is not yet possible to nail Lula’s return to the position of absolute favorite. The scenario remains volatile, and the relationship with Congress is still marked by tensions, as shown by the lightning approval on Wednesday (17) of a project that, in retaliation to the presidential veto to the increase in the number of deputies.
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Still, the predominant reading is that the government left the defensive and, for the first time in weeks, returned to guide the debate.
