Electoral research, conducted July 10 to 14, interviewed 2004 people in 120 municipalities of all regions of Brazil; margin of error is two percentage points, with confidence level of 95%
The latest survey by the genius Quest brings out the possible electoral scenarios to the Presidency of the Republic in 2026, highlighting the leadership of the current president, . According to data released on Thursday (17), if the election was held at this time, Lula would be reelected with 32% of voting intentions, surpassing the former president which appears with 26%. Other candidates, such as Ciro Gomes, Ratinho Júnior, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, have voting intentions ranging from 8% to 2%. In addition, the survey reveals that 9% of voters are undecided, while 14% prefer to vote blank, null and void.
In an alternative scenario, where Lula’s opponent would be Michele Bolsonaro, the president still leads with 30% of voting intentions, against 19% of former first lady. Ciro Gomes, Ratinho Júnior, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema continues with minor percentages. The research also considered a scenario with As a right candidate, where Lula keeps the lead with 32%, while the governor of São Paulo and Ciro Gomes are technically tied. In a clash with Eduardo Bolsonaro, Lula would have 31% of voting intentions, with the federal deputy licensed and Ciro Gomes again tied.
The survey, conducted July 10 and 14, interviewed 2004 people 16 years or older in 120 municipalities in all regions of Brazil. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. These data provide a comprehensive view of current electoral preferences and highlight Lula’s strength in various first -round scenarios. In addition to the first -round scenarios, the genius Quest also analyzed possible second round disputes. In a direct confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro, the current president would win with 43% of the votes, while the former president would have 37%. In other second -round scenarios, Lula would also be victorious against Tarcísio de Freitas, Michele Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro, with percentages ranging from 41% to 43% for Lula.
*With information from Roberto Nonato and Soraya Lauand
*Report produced with the aid of AI
