GENIAL Survey/Quaest released on Thursday (17) shows that, in second round simulations of the 2026 election, the president (PT) leads to all competitors and maintains a technical draw only with the governor (Republicans) —41% to 37% in favor of the petista.
The draw between them is at the maximum limit of the research margin of the research, which is two percentage points, to more or less.
In the stimulated scenarios, the petista again opened some advantage over former president (), former first lady (PL) and governors of Paraná, (PSD), and Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD).
Na, they all appeared in a technical draw.
Now, after the tariff crisis and A, Lula gained a breath, which was still reflected in his assessment – with the negative rate ranging from 43% to 40%.
In the competition with Tarcisio, which when composing with pockets and then Lula marks the same 41%of the previous survey, but the governor, who had 40%, now appears with 37%. In March, they set 43% to 37%.
There are still 15% blank or null votes and voters who will not vote, and 7% undecided.
In May, in the dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro, both marked 41%. Now, the current president has 43% compared to 37% of the opponent. Bolsonaro, however, because of convictions in the Electoral Justice, although acting as if in the match.
Genial/Quaris did 2,004 interviews in 120 municipalities, from Thursday (10) until Monday (14). The confidence level is 95%. The QUEST survey is funded by Digital Investment Broker Genial Investimentos, controlled by the Genial Bank.
The Quaest survey was conducted after announcing a 50% surcharge to imported products. The measure has been used by the government and the PT to intensify the discourse of defense of sovereignty.
Tarcisio and other right -wing governors who, at first, praised Trump and attacked Lula changed their tone, and seeking exits.
72% of Brazilians say it is a mistake for Trump to impose tariffs on Brazil because of former President Bolsonaro and at the same time, 53% say President Lula is right in reacting with reciprocity.
In the electoral simulation against Michelle, Lula has 43% compared to 36% of the former first lady. Before, the score was 43% to 39%. Lula marks 41% against Mouse, which has 36%. In May, the petista had 40%, and the governor of Paraná, 38%. Regarding milk, Lula has 41% compared to 36% of the gaucho (it was 40% to 36%).
The petista follows with an advantage over three other names rated as presidential-the licensed deputy (PL-SP), who as a way of pressuring amnesty to the father and the accused of coup, and the governors of Minas Gerais (new), and Goiás ().
In the scenario against Eduardo, Lula has 43%, and the deputy, 33%. There was no big change despite the, since in the previous round the rates were 44% to 34%.
Regarding Zema, the numbers were the same: 42% for the petista and 33% for the miner. Lula has 42% against 33% Caiado (it was 43% to 33%).
The survey also features four first -round scenarios, with various candidates. In the first simulation, Lula has 32%, Bolsonaro 26%, () 8%, mouse 6%, quad 3%, zema 2%, whites and null 14%and undecided total 9%.
In the second, Lula has 30%, Michelle 19%, Cyrus 10%, 7%mouse, fell 5%, zema 4%, white and null 16%and undecided total 9%.
The third scenario has Lula (32%), Tarcisio (15%), Ciro (12%), Caiado (5%), zema (4%), white and null and null (21%) and undecided (11%). And the latter features Lula (31%), Eduardo Bolsonaro (15%), Ciro (11%), Mouse (7%), Caiado (5%), Zema (5%), white and null and null (16%) and undecided (10%).
In addition, the survey points out that 62% understand that Bolsonaro should give up his candidacy and support another candidate.
In this case, respondents are divided into who should be the right -wing candidate: 15% choose Tarcisio (there were 17%), 13% prefer Michelle (were 16%), 9% answer mouse (11%), Eduardo Bolsonaro and Pablo Marçal (PRTB) have 8% each (the deputy had 4% in the previous round), milk is mentioned by 4%, and Zema and Caiado for 3%. There are still 19% who do not want any of these and 17% who do not know.
For 58%, Lula should not apply for reelection, while 38% opine yes. In May, 66% were against the petista’s candidacy and 32% were favorable.
In spontaneous research (when candidates’ names are not presented to the interviewee), Lula has 15% of voting intentions, and Bolsonaro scores 11%. Most said indecisive, 68%.
