Bolsonaro leads dispute for Planalto in Amapá, says research

A survey conducted by Paraná Research in the State of Amapá shows that the former president (PL), leads voting intentions in the Planalto dispute in 2026 against the president (PT). The former president adds 39% compared to 31.8% of Lula.

In the dispute against former first lady, Michelle Bolsonaro, if she is chosen to replace her husband, who is, she and the petista are tied within the margin of error, 2.8 percentage points. Lula has 32.7% against 31.8% of the former first lady.

In the confrontation of the President of the Republic against the governor of São Paulo (Republicans), the petista adds 33.4% of voting intentions compared to 20.6% of the governor.

Simulated scenarios also include (PDT), (União Brasil), (PSD) and (MDB).

Here’s the scenario with Jair Bolsonaro:

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ­­– 39%;
• Lula (PT) – 31,8%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 12,5%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 3,7%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 2,6%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,9%;
• They don’t know/didn’t think – 4,3%;
• None/whites/nulls – 5,2%.

Here’s the scenario with Michelle Bolsonaro:

• Lula (PT) – 32,7%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro – 31,8%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 14,7%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 4,3%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 3,6%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 1,2%;
• do not know/did not opine – 5,2%;
• No/whites/null – 6,6%.

Here’s the scenario with Tarcísio de Freitas:

• Lula (PT) – 33,4%;
• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 20,6%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 17,6%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 6,0%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 3,1%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 1,4%;
• do not know/did not opine – 7,0%;
• None/whites/nulls – 10,8%.

Here’s the scenario with Eduardo Bolsonaro:

• Lula (PT) – 33,4%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 23,4%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 17,2%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 5,8%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 4,0%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 1,6%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,2%;
• None/whites/nulls – 8,4%.

Federal Government Evaluation

The survey also asked the interviewees how the current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) evaluates. Most interviewees (40.5%) say they consider Lula’s “bad” or “bad” management. Positive assessment, ie “great” or “good”, adds 32%, while 25.6% say they find the current “regular” government.

Here’s the percentages:

• excellent – 12,1%;
• bom – 19,9%;
• regular – 25,6%;
• roomy – 6,9%;
• bad – 33,6%;
• do not know/did not opine – 1,9%.

More objectively, with only two answers options (approves/disapproval), 45.5% of voters say they approve the petista government, while 50.7% disapprove. Another 3.8% could not answer.

Here’s the percentages:

• approve – 45,5%;
• disapproval – 50,7%;
• do not know/did not opine – 3,8%.

Paraná research listened to 1,310 voters in 16 municipalities of Amapá, from July 11 to 15, 2025. The degree of confidence is 95.0% for a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Research aggregator

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