Japanese voters will be able to trigger political turmoil as they go to the polls on Sunday, in an election to the High House of Parliament, which will be widely disputed, with the increase in prices and concerns about immigration threatening to weaken the control of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over power.
Opinion polls suggest that Ishiba’s Democratic Liberal Party (PLD) and its coalition partner, Komeito, may fall short of the 50 seats needed to maintain control of the Parliament High House, which has 248 seats, in an election where half of the seats are in dispute.
The research shows that the smaller opposition parties, which advocate tax reduction and the increase in public spending, should gain ground, including the right-wing Sanseito, which promises to restrict immigration, oppose the entry of foreign capital and reverse gender equality measures.
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A bad result of the governing coalition could shake investors’ confidence in the fourth largest economy in the world and stop critical trade negotiations with the United States, analysts say.
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Ishiba may have to choose between making the way for a new PLD leader or fighting to ensure the support of some opposition parties with political commitments, Rintaro Nishimura, Asia Group associate in Japan, said.
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“Each scenario requires that PLD and Komeito make certain concessions, and it will be a challenge, as any potential partner has influence on negotiations.”
After the election, Japan faces August 1 to close a trade agreement with the United States or facing punitive tariffs in its largest export market.
These import rates could press the economy and even more so the government to give financial relief to families who have been suffering from inflation, such as the duplication of rice prices since last year.
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With an eye on an unstable public securities market, the PLD has called for tax restraint, rejecting opposition appeals for large tax cuts and social assistance spending.
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The government of Ishiba lost mostly in the Baixa Chamber, which is more powerful in October.
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As the worst PLD result in 15 years, the result stirred the financial markets and left the prime minister vulnerable to motions of distrust that can overthrow his government and provoke a new overall election.
Government governed by PLD for most of the postwar period, Japan has so far avoided the social division and fragmentation of politics observed in other industrialized democracies.
The vote ends at 8 pm (local time, 8 am on Sunday in Brasilia), when local media are expected to project results based on the river-mouth research.
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(Tim Kelly’s report)
