I am the average behavior of investors, their awareness in prices and active movements. Nothing is more true and honest than words said in the form of numbers, which go up or down from the decisions of each and each.
Accustomed to committing “sincericides”, it is not new that I gave up thinking on short -term possibilities for Brazil. The only information I care about is the 2026 election.
After a series of events, especially the project announced at the end of last year (precisely when expected a signage of fiscal responsibility), I understood that the government was committed to spending, not the other way around.
The Brazilian tax trajectory indicates that from 2027, by my bakery accounts, we will be in trouble. Debt becomes a snowball, interest rates remain at high levels and the cost of debt stretches as our creditors call us more compensation for the lack of credibility.
You can’t expect anything much different from that, unfortunately. And so, I am obliged to observe speculation about what the candidates’ board should be in 2026.
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Jair Bolsonaro and his family members appear well in the polls – but honestly, I don’t want them. The current government needs them to be competitive in the next race, as Batman needs the Joker.
Apparently it is someone with preparation, good political articulation between the parties and capable of leading. The problem is Brazil that would inherit if elected, not easy to correct.
However, as in the life of the Brazilian every mess is little, his schedule of tariff reciprocity took another step and made Brazil a new victim of the “tariff machine gun”.
In all countries attacked by Trump, the incumbent government has benefited in public approval – at least those who positioned themselves firmly against American measures. We observed this pattern in Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada Mexico, where an election that seemed decided to have a turnaround to the “42 of the second half.”
Here, it was no different. Recently published government approval polls already show – that, like their peers, has firmly positioned themselves with the discourse of national sovereignty.
The question is whether this can mess with what truly matters: the 2026 election. It is early to speak, but given what has been seen in other geographies, the shock must be diluted. So far, it has been uncomfortable enough for many investors to try to protect themselves from the bag in Brazil and call a more cautious mood.
Caution, this is the reading of the moment. All news about the electoral soap opera must move prices.
Curious to realize how the political cycle became the only foundation.
