Those of the (Supreme Court) against the former president () have the potential to anticipate their removal from the political stage, something that was only expected for the coming months, with the end of the trial. This increases the pressure on how the indication of a successor to 2026 will unfold.
The STF minister forbade Bolsonaro from wearing social networks, traveling and also determined to wear an electronic anklet. The action took its allies by surprise, reinforced the speech of persecution and victimization of the former president, who spoke of “Supreme Persecution.”
In its surroundings, the measure is classified as a kind of early arrest. The next steps are still uncertain, and PL meetings early next week should determine joint action as demonstrations.
But, privately, allies care about the former president’s physical and psychological picture, who, by the end of 2022, had a depression after losing reelection.
The electronic anklet had an effect of reuniting pockets, shaken in recent weeks with the wear and tear brought by the president of, to Brazilian products.
There is an understanding in the group that the moment is of solidarity with the former president and insistence on his candidacy. In one of the interviews he gave on Friday (18), Bolsonaro said that without him in the dispute in 2026, the president-the former president is already ineligible.
Allies of the former president have repeated the term used by Trump–to refer to the thesis that, by the STF’s performance, any candidacy for the presidency with the surname Bolsonaro would be prevented from participating in the dispute.
The possibility of the family being out of the election has not been dealt with with the former president. Researchively, their interlocutors say the theme is sensitive and the timing, even worse.
Part of his allies says this could strengthen the governor’s candidacy (Republicans), as it is the most viable in this scenario.
Another, more resistant to the name of the governor of São Paulo, believes it is possible to build an option with a son of Bolsonaro on the plate alongside one of the other right -wing governors, such as (Union), from Goiás.
The licensed deputy (PL-SP) speaks openly the possibility of being a candidate for the Plateau if his father so wishes. On the other hand, he also says that he will not return to Brazil anytime soon, since he fears being arrested – he has acted in the United States caused the STF investigation for coercion on the court, from which the father was the target of Friday’s decision.
Although the scenario is shuffled, the general reading is that Bolsonaro ends the week better than it began, from an electoral point of view. All episodes involving Trump’s surcharge brought enormous wear to the political group, from divergence over strategy to exposure and questioning Bolsonaro’s positioning.
But now their allies argue that the electronic anklet in the former president can now reinforce the role of victim and gather his base. Which, in practice, would help to build a successor.
One of the main points to be explored in this field is the fact that Moraes banned Bolsonaro from talking to his son Eduardo. The former president will reinforce the speech of persecution and bend the bet against the Supreme, expanding the exposure to the fullest, according to reports, especially because it is prohibited from using social networks. Only Friday did it grant five interviews, including exclusive and collective, to national and international vehicles.
According to allies, Bolsonaro has considered leaving the country, but he has convinced himself in recent months that it is necessary to stay and make a political confrontation. The assessment is that if it left the country, it would be treated as cowardly by petism – which is destroying the role of martyr that its allies seek to print in it.
Bolsonaro has publicly refuted the possibility of escape, one of the justifications listed by Moraes in his decision.
The Federal Police found $ 14,000 in cash at the former president’s house on Friday-the seizure of the dollars is seen in the STF as an indication of the country’s escape plan, which is not discarded even by his allies.
If in Bolsonarism the decision of the Supreme Court has printed a need for unity, but without precise referrals, among centrão leaders the feeling was stunning, including parties that seek to enable a right -wing candidacy in 2026.
In the report, these leaders said that the measures imposed by Moraes threw kerosene in a scenario already at high temperatures and where Congress will have to act with caution. This Friday, even more affordable deputies refused to talk to journalists.
In the words of one of these leaders, close to Bolsonaro, it is unpredictable what will come from now on. Centrão parliamentarians are concerned and there is not yet a definite strategy about how to participate in this crisis. This same leader argues that center parties avoid sudden measures that signal clear alignment to the government or opposition in an attempt to make tension cool.
Regarding 2026, the indefinition remains significant, these parliamentarians say. Bolsonaro is increasingly pressured to give up the presidential candidacy, but is in the spotlight and gains strength to define his successor.
