The shadow of a new electoral batacazo stalks the conservative Democratic Liberal Party (PLD) of Japan. The formation of the prime minister, is on his way to losing, together with his coalition partner, the Komeito party, most of the upper dietary house (the Parliament), after the partial elections held this Sunday, according to the polls published by different media after the closure of the polls at eight in the afternoon (the one of noon in the peninsular Spain). The situation, if confirmed, would lead to the country to a potential period of political instability.
Although the definitive results are not expected until the early hours of Monday, the polls seem to follow the course that the surveys already marked during a campaign that has aroused a high interest, taking into account that only 125 seats were decided on the 248 seats of the lower weight of the legislative (this institution is renewed by halves every three years).
The ruling PLD and his partner Komeito sought to obtain at least 50 of the dispute seats to conserve ―Mounts to the members who were not renewed in these elections – an absolute majority in the chamber. But they would stay in a fork between 32 and 51 seats, according to the public chain polls cited by Reuters. Other media predict that the ruling coalition would obtain between 41 and 43 seats. If the result were less than 46, it would mark its worst result since the coalition was formed in 1999.
Although the vote does not determine the derived situation, it could put it in trouble, to make it vulnerable to censorship motions, and plunge Japan in agitation, since Ishiba must seek the support of third opposition parties in the upper house. The bad result of the PLD, in addition, could give encouragement to the critical factions among their ranks, which could try to force the fall of the prime minister, and look for an alternative leader at a critical moment in which weight issues such as the tariffs of the United States are negotiated.
The second major formation of Japan, the Democratic Constitutional Party (PCD), of Centroiz left, would achieve about 24, in line with other years, but without the capacity for real maneuver, according to the survey disclosed by the newspaper The Asahi Shimbun and other media.
Among the opposition forces, a group of populist dyes would rise with force, which drinks from the polarizing waters and anti -immigration of the Republican Donald Trump. The extreme right -wing formation would obtain around 17 seats, according to The Asahi Shinbum.
Sanseito has managed to channel a good part of the discontent citizen after weeks of electoral debates marked by the high cost of life, which suffocates the middle classes YY for the negotiation against clock of tariffs with the United States, determining for a country with export vocation. The fourth economy of the planet in which he warned that, if an agreement did not impose from August 1, 25% taxes to the importation of their products.
The opposition sought to convert the call into a referendum about Ishiba’s leadership. The Prime Minister rules Japan after reaping. The PLD was already punished by the voters and lost the majority in the lower house, but ishiba managed to articulate an executive supported by its traditional ally, and stay skillful in front. No novelty for a country that has been under the baton of the same formation almost without interruptions since 1955.
Without a majority in any of the chambers of the diet, the situation will be in any case of extreme fragility for the coalition, and it is foreseeable that the opposition pressure continues to increase in the midst of generalized price increases.
No product better symbolizes discontent than rice, an essential food and mass consumption in the country. Its price has doubled since 2024, due to a cocktail of bad harvests, alarm to possible natural disasters and logistic distribution problems. At the end of May, with the threat of the elections around the corner, the government
