Artistic Representation of Shahed-136 Drone to attack an Air Base
According to data revealed by German intelligence, Russia will triple the current record of drones used in a single attack on Ukraine – exploring a vulnerability of Ukrainian defense: the enormous disproportion between the cost of drones used in attack and missiles thrown for them.
Russia is close to launching a swarm of But 2,000 drones Against Ukraine, warns the general Christian FreudingCommander of the Situation Center for Ukraine of the Ministry of Defense of Germany.
It is an unprecedented number in the terrorist campaign that Vladimir Putin has been running against the country’s civilian population for over two years, says.
The climb coincides with the significant Russian production increase Of unmanned air vehicles: according to Ukrainian intelligence, Kremlin plans to produce about 2 million FPV drones and 30,000 longo drones reach.
A massive attack with 2,000 simultaneous devices would represent triple the current record. On July 9, Russia launched 728 drones do tipo shahed In a single night, the highest number recorded so far.
A swarm of 2,000 drones would get totally saturate the air defenses Ukrainian, conceived for Intercet individual targets or small groups – Not being prepared to block massive vacancies of cheap deviceswhich cost between 30,000 and 50,000 euros each.
The Russian Threat explores a fundamental vulnerability Defense systems: the disproportionate cost between attack and defense.
A Shahed Drone, usually produced in the Russian facilities of Alabuga, costs about 40.000 euros, while the missile that is launched for intercept costs between 10 to 100 times more. This huge disproportion from 1 to 125 transforms Each interception in an economic victory to Moscow.
“The current anti -aircraft defense solutions They are economically unsustainable When used against relatively cheap drones, ”Freuding told Bundeswehr’s Nachgefragt podcast.
The German general insists on the urgent need to develop countermearts that cost Between 2,000 and 4,000 euros per interceptiona fraction of the current price of advanced systems.
The escalation of attacks on Russian drones has grown exponentially. Between September 2022 and August 2023, Russia launched about 2,000 drones Shahed against Ukraine. This number fired in 2025: In June Moscow fired a record of 5,337 drones, more than double the first year of attacks.
A Russian ability to support massive attacks It is based on the industrial expansion of its production facilities, but reinforced by a change of Chinese policy that changed technological balance of the conflict.
Beijing stopped providing drone components to Ukraine and reormed his Exports to Russia.
“This measure significantly limited Ukraine’s access to drive -related essential technologies,” said German general. Chinese change represents a strategic blow to Kievwhich depended on Chinese electronic components for their own drone production.
While Ukraine sees the supply of critical pieces cut, Russia accesses the same technology to feed its arms factories. This asymmetry in component access can Determine the Future of War Course Non -manned air, says Freuding.
Despite supply limitations, Ukraine managed to expand dramatically its own drone production capacity.
The then Defense MinisterRustem Umerovdeclared on June 26 that Kiev currently has Ability to produce 4 million annual drones.
The president Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine could produce up to 8 million drones per yearalthough it lacks international financial support to achieve this potential.
This production race between Russia and Ukraine is the clearest example of how The War of the Future is already an industrial competition – where productive capacity can result more decisive than traditional tactical superiority.
