At this point, after reiterated speeches and, who still insists that they have nothing to do with – and their real interest, inexplicably secret, is to punish Brazil (and only Brazil) for its role in – is only reproducing political narrative. Trump gives all the shows that he wants to bend our righteousness.
made your choice. He is willing to destroy Brazil to rid the father of justice. Now Brazil has to be with the consequences of this revenge.
To this day, Trump almost always backs back H. It can happen again now. However, the most prudent is to consider that he can impose rates. The end of exports to the US is a hard blow, but not catastrophic – it will present, in the worst if possible, 2% of GDP. Our domestic market, in the short term, will have an increase in supply of these products, which should give a momentary reduction in the price (which will be corrected as production adapts to the new reality).
With the US, we have few options. The Lula administration failed by not prioritizing the relationship since Trump’s arrival. Lula even said he didn’t talk to Trump because “he had no subject.” There was the subject. We will never know, however, if a better communication channel would have made a difference. What we know is that, at this moment, Trump does not respond to the letter of Brazilian proposals, but sends letter to Bolsonaro.
From Trump’s announcement, the government’s stance is correct: trying to negotiate on top of what can be negotiated – the economic agenda brought to the table by the US government’s request for investigation, for example – even knowing that the chance of success is low. Press some postponement, at least to the most vulnerable sectors. Rethaliament is a foolhardy step, as the pain the US can cause us is very large.
Also, make contact with American companies, press and pressure groups to press Trump, showing the bad effect of prices rates. Economic pressure was, to this day, the only one that had an effect on Trump.
Our look must be out of the US. Contact other governments – democratic – that can speak out against Trump’s blackmail. Today we are; Tomorrow will be the sovereign decisions of other nations that will be in Trump’s sights.
It’s time to look out, looking for new markets and looking for new business agreements. In the 1990s and 2000s, when many countries sought business agreements, Brazil did not open. Now we have a new opportunity. Trump’s protectionist bullying pushes the world – an inclusive – in the right direction. Once created, new commercial flows tend to perpetuate themselves, leaving us less dependent on the US.
In all this, we see the lack that makes a world trade authority, as was the WTO. At Trump’s initiative-it has been inoperative since 2019. Resting it or, in the impossibility of doing so without American cooperation, creating an alternative with wide voluntary adherence, should also be on the priority list. International trade benefits from uniform rules.
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