In the opposite curve, although much less sharp, the price of Brazilian meat has risen to Americans
André Borges
Extra tariffs already imposed by US President Donald Trump overthrew the sale of to Americans, even before the 50%surcharge, scheduled to be valid from August 1.
In April, the month when Trump started to impose an additional 10%taxation, Brazilian meat exports to the US reached 47.8 thousand tons.
In less than three months, however, the volume plummeted: sales of 27,400 tons were recorded in May. In June, there was a new reduction to 18,200 tons. This month, one more fall, and the volume of US purchases reaches 9,700 tons at this time, a 80% reduction on April exports.
Bilateral trade data are from MDIC (Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services), compiled by ABIEC (Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries).
In the opposite curve, although much less sharp, the price of Brazilian meat rose to Americans. If in April the average amount paid by the importer was $ 5,200 per ton of meat, this price went to $ 5,400 in May and reached $ 5,600 in June.
This week, the average value practiced is $ 5,850, a 12%increase.
With the uncertainty of what may occur from August, some remittances of meat already closed and had the US as a destination have changed the port destination in US territory to prevent the vessel from arriving after the 1st.
Behind the scenes, the meat industry and the federal government have sought American importers to try to sensitize the sector about the reflexes that a 50% rate will have about transactions. The articulators involved in these discussions believe it will be possible to include this step in a negotiation in steps.
The general scenario, however, remains obscure, given the position of the US government not to make room for negotiations and impose conditions without any economic relationship, such as the revision of proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro by the Supreme Court.
Last week, Mato Grosso do Sul refrigerators suspended the production of meat for the United States.
Brazil is today the largest exporter of beef to the US, followed by Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay. At the same time, Americans are the second largest fate of Brazilian meat, just behind China.
Meat sales to the US followed record levels by the beginning of this year. From January to June 2025, Brazil exported 181,500 tons of beef to the United States, with revenues of US $ 1.04 billion in the period.
The result represents a growth of 112.6% in volume and 102% in value over the same period of 2024, when 85.4 thousand tons were exported, totaling US $ 515 million.
The average Brazilian price is still below the average of exporters such as Canada and Argentina, but this situation would dramatically change with the 50% overwhelming threatened by Trump.
Historically, the United States imposes import limits on the beef that enters the country. Each export country has a ceiling (quota) of how many tons of meat can sell to the US with low rate (or even exemption). If the country wants to export more than this quota, it is possible, but it pays a higher fare, which usually makes the product more expensive and reduces its competitiveness.
Brazil has a quota of 65 thousand tons per year. The country had been exporting much more beef to the US, with over 181,000 tons from January to June, ie almost triple the allowed quota with reduced tariff. This shows that Brazilian meat enters the US even paying larger rates. With Trump’s new threats, however, this scenario tends to become unfeasible.
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), who leads the dialogues, signaled, in conversations with assistants who accompany the theme, that the Brazilian productive sectors can function as a spearhead of this strategy. In this script, first, are meetings with sectors of the Brazilian market, which began on Tuesday (15).
According to Abiec, about 70% of all meat produced is in the national market. The 30% that are exported, mostly, correspond to cuts that the Brazilian does not consume frequently. Especially from the front of the ox, which goes to the United States, where it is used in the production of hamburgers, and kids, which go to Asia, where they are used in typical stews and preparations, for example.
