Kremlin’s warnings about the possible use of nuclear weapons have become a constant since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. However, Its effectiveness seems to have diminished over time. This is what Ryhor Nizhnikau, principal investigator of the Institute of Foreign Policy, who considers that Moscow has abused the “red lines” resource, to the point of wearing your credibility.
“Remember the threats of (the former US president) Barack Obama About Siria, that they never materialized and that Russia took the opportunity to ridicule, ”says Nizhnikau.
This week, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, reiterated that the new Russian nuclear doctrine – actualized in the late 2024 – authorizes the use of nuclear weapons against non -nuclear countries If they have support of powers with atomic arsenal. A clear message to the West, which continues to support Ukraine militarily.
At the moment, Russia has 4,309 operational nuclear weaponsaccording to data from the International Institute for Peace Research in Stockholm (SIPRI), placing itself as the main nuclear power. It is followed by the United States, with 3,700, and far behind China (600), United Kingdom (225) and France (290). All, except China have supported the Ukrainian army with weapons.
Despite the aggressive tone of Moscow, Nizhnikau believes that these threats have more symbolic gesture than real intention. “For Russia, The nuclear weapon is an instrument of intimidation, not something they plan to use immediately. His goal is to sow fear, not press the button, “he explains.
From his point of view, this deterrence also reflects Vladimir Putin’s leadership style: repeated warnings, ambiguous insinuations and a constant game with the limits. “They threaten nine times and in the tenth they act. Thus they keep the tension,” he says.
The Trump effect and the delicate balance
The threat takes on a new nuance With the return to the international scene of Donald Trump. As transcended last week, the US president would have asked the Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelenski If kyiv would consider attacking Russian cities like Moscow or St. Petersburg. Although Trump later disagree with and ruled out to deliver long -range missiles, the episode put on the table how far the rope is willing.
At the same time, his team presented a proposal to continue supporting Ukraine through an indirect route: that European countries buy American weapons and give them to kyiv. But Trump also warned that, if there is no progress towards the end of the war in 50 days, 100% tariffs would impose to Russia’s commercial partners.
At the moment, the Kremlin reaction has been contained. According to Nizhnikau, the ads have not surprised Moscow too much. “American politics has returned to the point where I was before Trump’s passage through the White House. From the Russian point of view, there are no major changes: they have resisted six months, have broken part of the diplomatic isolation and remain standing, ”he says.
