It is unlikely that the president of United States, Donald Trumpfulfill your threat of imposing tariffs 100% to countries they buy oil Russian, as this would aggravate the politically harmful inflationary pressures and their similar threat against Venezuelan oil buyers was limited, especially in China.
Trump said this month that unless Moscow agrees with a major peace agreement with Ukraine in 50 days, a deadline that will expire in early September.
The threat reflected an announcement in March that the US would apply rates on sanctioned Venezuelan oil buyers. None of these rates have been imposed since then, although Venezuela’s oil exports increased.
“We think the secondary rates can be too strongly striking for the government to use” against Russia, said Fernando Ferreira, director of the rapidan Energy Group’s geopolitical risk service.
“If you are willing to adopt the nuclear option by removing more than 4.5 million barrels per day from the market, and are willing to cut commercial ties with other countries because they are importing Russian oil, you will risk massive peaks on oil price and a collapse of the global economy.”
Clay Seagle, a graduate member and chair president James Schlesinger of Energy and Geopolitics of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that if the 100% tariff is fully applied to countries receiving Russian barrels, it has the potential to cut global supply and raise prices.
Analysts and operators are deeply skeptical about the possibility of Trump allowing this to happen for two reasons, said Seagle. “First, it is very sensitive to the high of oil prices and will want to avoid this result.”
Secondly, Trump prefers to consummate bilateral agreements instead of joining the rigid formulas that would leave him hands tied in the negotiations.
“Some US business partner nations can, like oil traders, consider this an arrogant attitude,” said Seagle.
On July 16, two days after issuing the threat of fare, Trump said the $ 64 oil price per barrel is a great level, that his government was trying to lower him a little more and that the low level was “one of the reasons why inflation is under control.”
Since then, oil prices have remained in this range, ignoring the threat of imminent supply interruptions.
Seagle said Trump’s current trade war, especially her steel tariffs, could raise commodity prices for oil drills in the United States, the world’s largest gross oil producer.
This could raise oil prices at the time when the Mandate elections for the US Congress start next year.
Trump’s Republicans have a very small majority in the House and US Senate and the president will likely avoid actions that increase oil prices during campaigns, analysts said.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump proved her to fulfill her promises.
“He has been extremely hard with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and intelligently left all the options on the table, leaving the existing sanctions in force-and recently threatened Putin with fees and severe sanctions if he does not agree with a ceasefire.”
The Treasury Department, which manages the sanctions, said it is ready to act.
“As President Trump has announced, Russia has 50 days to agree with an agreement to end the war, or the US is prepared to implement severe secondary sanctions,” a spokesman said.
