He between Brussels and Washington seems to be around the corner. On Sunday, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will be seen in Scotland to “discuss transatlantic commercial relations and how to keep them strong,” said the German in a message on the social network X this Friday afternoon. It will be the first bilateral meeting that both leaders have without another issue on the agenda since Trump returned to the White House in January.
Following a good call with , we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.
– Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen)
Before the publication of that message, Trump told journalists that they were waiting for him to address the presidential helicopter at the White House, at the beginning of his trip to Scotland, that he believed that “there was 50% possibilities” that the United States firm a commercial agreement with the EU. Less enthusiastic about that appointment than the European part, the US president also warned that the negotiators of both parties are working “closely.” Trump has plans to spend the weekend in a golf club in Aberdeen, where he will receive Von der Leayen the British and Scottish leaders.
Trump’s statements advise to moderate the confidence that the treatment with Europe can already be given. American negotiators insist that, no matter how much they leave a pact, they always have to get the approval of the president of the United States. Thus, the trade agreement announced this week with Japan was demonstrated again, whose last changes were introduced by Trump himself by hand.
The president of the Commission does not assume that this Sunday is going to formalize a pact around. However, taking into account that this week the negotiation has been on track – with a 15% general tariff proposal for European exports to the United States – and the positions have approached a lot, the door has been opened to which Scotland, one of the territories of the United Kingdom that voted against Brexit, can be the scenario where the EU and the United States seal the end of the commercial war.
On Sunday they will barely miss four days to meet Trump unilaterally, which will conclude on August 1. If this date was reached, next Thursday, without a pact, Trump threatened to impose additional EU exports tariffs to the United States of 30%. To be ready on this scenario, La Unión approved a replica to impose a rate similar to imports from the other side of the Atlantic for a value of 93,000 million this Thursday.
However, most likely, the clash that would threaten to derail the world’s greatest commercial relationship is avoided. Every day, with data from 2024, they cross the Atlantic in one direction or in another products worth 2.4 billion euros. In total, 870,000 million euros last year, with a deficit from the American side close to 200,000 million.
In the middle of this week the positive news began to arrive after months of pessimism, tensions, threats and American displays to their European partners. On Wednesday the Commissioner of Commerce, Maros Sefcovic, informed the states that an agreement was being armed that consists of a general tariff close to 15% for the exports of the EU to the United States. That percentage, in reality, ratifies the current situation, in force since the beginning of April, when Washington suspended the falsely called “reciprocal tariffs” and left them at an additional 10% rate that joined the 4.8% that already applied before.
The potential agreement only implies a slight tariff rise on the previous one. The increase is, however, considerable with respect to the conditions that prevailed before the explosion of the commercial war. If that were the final scenario, it would be quite similar to that Trump has reached with Japan, in which there is also 15% general tariff for Japanese exports to the United States.
The negotiation framework that is being finalized would include car exports in that general tariff, lower than the one now pay (27.5% in total). They would not be covered, on the other hand, aluminum and steel, on which an additional 50%tax weighs. There would also be exemptions to products such as some spirits or the aeronautical sector.
It is key to know what will happen to open investigations on sectors such as the pharmacist – at which the US president threatened to impose a 200%tariff – and semiconductors. However, and given the optimism of these last days in Brussels, it is likely that these obstacles, present until last Friday, have disappeared.
