Faced with the siege of the (Supreme Federal Court), (), the former president’s allies are now seeing the dispute for the succession of his electoral estate to dawn.
In public, the speech will still be Bolsonaro candidate, but reserved for conversations about a name for the 2026 elections intensified. The Senator (PL-RJ) and the governor of, (Republicans) are emerging.
Any prison was expected only after the trial. The order of use of an electronic anklet in the former president, fulfilled on the 18th, anticipated the debate, even though Alexandre de Moraes, of the Supreme Court, has for now ruled out preventively. At least three allies of the former president he spoke last week see this scenario to draw.
One hypotheses takes into account the former president’s preference for nominating someone from the family to his succession. In this scenario, a few months ago, the federal deputy (PL-SP) was regarded as a possibility in the rise, but in the face of the chance of his arrest, if he returns to Brazil, his nomination is seen as unlikely.
The former first lady does well in research among the eventual successors. But the surroundings of the former president argues that the family would not like this possibility and believes that the campaign would be very tough for her-thereby assesses that a victory for the Federal District is regarded as certain.
Therefore, it gains strength between the former president’s allies the discussion around Senator Flávio. It weighs in his favor the fact that he is not in us, has good traffic in the political world and, above all, would be named after the family.
Even Centrão leaders began to defend their name as plan A, understanding that Bolsonaro will have priority by someone in the clan. Michelle and Eduardo are still seen by this group as radicals and, therefore, with difficulties at the time of voting.
There are parliamentarians who argue that, even arrested, Bolsonaro would still be important as an electoral cable and have the name in the ballot box would be essential in 2026.
The governor of São Paulo is seen as practically unbeatable electoral by supporters, and considered an important ally for both – especially Eduardo.
Tarcisio is regarded by allies of the center and pockets as the main name capable of raising support from the business community, more part of the population and, with the support of Bolsonaro, reaching the second round in a possible dispute with (PT).
Publicly, the governor, who projected himself politically after being Bolsonaro minister, has repeated that he does not want to be a candidate for the Planalto Palace – part of his allies says there is fears of letting a reelection in Sao Paulo with good chances of victory.
Moreover, they fear Erratic Bolsonaro behavior, who can support him and then signal to another, as did with (PRTB) in the dispute for the City of São Paulo.
There is, however, the assessment that it will be up to the former president. And finally, if he is the most viable candidate, he will be nominated for the political field, with the support of Bolsonaro.
Sought by SheetFlavio denied thinking of candidacy. “My candidate for 2026 is Jair Messias Bolsonaro. He is plan A, plan B and Plan C on the right. Already Tarcisio, through his advisory, declined to comment.
The former president holds the candidate’s speech, and on his way to a likely conviction for the coup plot that can take him to prison. This is part of your strategy of maintaining the main leadership of your political field.
In March, Bolsonaro said he will register candidacy at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) next year, regardless of where he is, – the petista was prevented from running and indicated at the last minute to the head of the plate.
In parallel, Bolsonaro encourages other names to put themselves as pre-candidates. Recently, from the governor (Novo), from Minas Gerais. Besides him, there are the governors (União Brasil), from Goiás, and (PSD), from Paraná.
Thus, it prevents a successor to fall into the scrutiny of public opinion in advance and that he loses political power at a crucial moment of his trial.
The former president did not change his calendar. His allies say it is unpredictable which, in fact, he will do. Recently, he even said that if he passes the staff, he will say this at a news conference to all.
A wing around the former president still hopes that he makes an announcement after the trial embargoes on the scammer plot’s STF are finished. The trial is expected to take place in September and the last embargoes would be analyzed at the Court in November.
Another wing believes that it will only treat from the subject next year. The deadline, if you decide to indicate Tarcisio, is April. The electoral law determines the disinfit of the position six months before the dispute.