The turbulent scenario of international trade and the volatility of interest and assets in 2025 should reinforce diversification, cost control and cash management strategies in publicly traded companies from various sectors. In lecture by Pop-Up InfoMoney na Expert XP 2025the cfos of Vale (), simpar () and XP () reinforced that the moment requires complete plans, from “A to Z”.
For Simpar’s financial executive, Denys Ferrez, the history shows that a diverse asset portfolio is the company’s biggest strength against moments of volatility such as the current one.
“Deep down, there is something practiced above the group’s CFO position, which is the diversification of business, customers and sectors of the most diverse in Brazil. Longer contracts,” he said.
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Ferrez stresses that the world of moved, we go and JSL, coincidentally, reached the highest interest period in Brazil – today at 15% – at a time of focusing on efficiency after an investment cycle. Over the past four years, he calculates investments in the order of $ 60 billion made by the eight controlled companies.
In the case of Vale, whose main product is iron ore, there is no direct correlation between interest and production. On the other hand, the currency scenario, influenced by the tariffs promoted by US President Donald Trump, should reflect on the company’s protection strategy for costs.
“The exchange rate positively affects revenue, but our costs are mostly in reais, so I have to do hedge [cobertura] of my dollar costs. What is the ideal level and where should I do? We need to work with various scenarios and have adaptability, ”said Vale’s CFO, Marcelo Bacci.
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– About 1% to 2% of revenue – currency volatility caused by increased global tariffs generates an indirect impact on the company. As the tendency is to appreciate the dollar if tariffs are maintained from April 1, a deadline for negotiations stipulated by Trump, exporters should benefit, even if the scenario creates a “difficult turbulence to manage.”
For Bacci, carrying liquidity is one of the coverage solutions for Vale: first, because it is difficult to predict cash generation; Second, because in Brazil charging cash is not costly, as debt interest rates have fees close to financial investments. This is a feature to which other countries are starting to get used to it. With the overall increase in interest rates, loading cash is becoming less costly among these companies.
The consensus among the speakers was that cost reduction follows as a watchword in companies.
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“Today, expenses management, return on investments, return on assets and return on assets are embedded in the company’s mindset. We look at this every Tuesday. It’s a living discussion: how to reduce cost base, keep investing and generate efficiency at the same time,” said XP CFO Victor Mansur.
Mansur gives as an example the period from 2021 to 2022, when, capitalized after its IPO, with contribution from Itaú and with the trend of discharge in international markets, the company expanded on several fronts. “In 2022 we were setting up bank, insurer, various businesses, and were caught by the market turn with a cost that did not hold that moment,” he said.
Lcis ea lca
For Mansur, it should impact the offer of these products on the market. Like those issued until the end of 2025 are exempt, the tendency is to warm the flow of emitting companies in 2026.
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“The speed with which companies want to issue is higher than banks can stock up,” says Mansur. He says the effect will be that the titles will continue to be distributed to the market in 2026.
All regulatory change generates a movement of volatility and price adjustment. As far as the rule is known, the idea is that, from next year, exempt products have 5% tax, and until then, no.
The effect is that there is a larger offer, with very strong pipeline warming in the capital market and several companies looking for their banks to make emissions. The speed with which companies want to issue is higher than banks can store.
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Bank balance sheets will increase by 2025 and this will be sold to customers with exemption in 2026. This combines with Brazil in a year of election, in the first, second and third quarters.
