The president Donald Trump promised to trigger a economic boom that will boost growth, fattening wages and reduce the mountain of debts from the United States.
However, a new analysis of Trump’s Mater Alma suggests that its repression of immigration – can do Exactly the opposite.
Trump’s mass deportation policy would reduce the wages of most workers, erode Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and increase the already huge federal government budget deficit, according to an analysis of the Penn Wharton budgetary model shared exclusively with the CNN.
“There is no doubt that the US economy will be smaller as much of the workforce is deported,” said Kent Smetters, professor of business economy and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School in an interview.
“We will simply have fewer bodies to produce. Less people means a smaller savings.”
During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to launch OE eventually expelling millions of people.
Penn Wharton’s analysis found that a four -year policy in which 10% of the country’s illegal immigrants are removed per year would increase federal deficits by $ 350 billion, reduce GDP by 1% and impair average wages of workers.
Larger deficits are motivated by a combination of loss of revenue and new expenses necessary to make mass deportations possible – in addition to financing for border security, internal surveillance and deportations provided by the tax and spending cut package that Trump has sanctioned this month.
If the repression of immigration lasted 10 years, the cost to the federal government would increase to US $ 987 billionGDP would decrease in 3,3% and salaries would fall 1,7%the researchers discovered.
Impaired by deportations
This does not mean that all workers would be harmed by mass deportations.
Penn Wharton concluded that authorized and less qualified workers – including those born in the US – would receive a salary increase due to lower competition.
Salaries of authorized and less qualified workers would increase 5% Until 2034, according to the analysis.
However, if deportations are reversed after four years, the salaries of authorized and less qualified workers would fall.
“Part of the promise of the deportation is that those who are left behind will be in better situation. In fact, the result is much more mixed,” Smetters told CNN.
Penn Wharton found that the result for highly qualified workers is clearer: their situation would get worse.
This is because unauthorized and poorly qualified workers complement more qualified workers, defined in the analysis as native citizens, permanent residents and visa immigrants with at least some university education.
More qualified workers “are usually more harmed by deportation than less authorized less qualified workers are helped,” said Penn Wharton’s analysis, adding that more qualified workers have a greater impact on salaries and GDP and contribute more to taxes.
Highly qualified workers would suffer an average loss of $ 2,764 in annual salaries if the repression of immigration lasted 10 years, Smetters said.
“If you are middle -class or upper class, you will be harmed by deportation because it depends on less qualified workers to make your work easier and make your life more comfortable,” Smetters said.
Rural workers
Less qualified, sometimes unauthorized workers play central roles in various sectors, including construction, restaurants and manufacturing.
This is especially true in agriculture.
Between 2020 and 2022, about 39% of agricultural workers were US citizens, while 19% were authorized immigrants. This means that the rest – 42% – had no work authorization, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
“There are many jobs in the US that natives do not want-and foreigners are happy to have them”Said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research.
The White House rejected the discoveries of Penn Wharton.
“This type of pedantic analysis does not see the forest because of the trees, as it does not take into account the huge costs that ordinary Americans are forced to bear due to illegal immigration: violent crimes, increased housing costs, erosion of social confidence and even excess emergency rooms,” said White House spokesman Kush, Kush, in a statement to a statement to CNN.
Desai highlighted a survey that found that more than one in ten young adults in the United States is not employed, nor studying higher education, nor in vocational training.
“There is no shortage of American minds and hands to increase our workforce,” President Trump’s agenda said to create jobs for American workers represents this government’s commitment to capitalizing on this unexplored potential to build America’s next gold era, while we have fulfilled our mandate to enforce our immigration laws. “
‘We need immigration’
It is true that some young people are having difficulty finding a job.
The unemployment rate for people from 20 to 24 was 8.2% in June – more than double the national rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
However, it is also true that the aging of the American population creates real challenges for the economy and companies.
Economists fear that, with Baby Boomers retirement, companies will have difficulty finding workers, a problem that would be aggravated by the loss of foreign workers.
Roth, an economist at Wolfe Research, fears mass deportations, along with the Trump government’s decision to end the legal status of hundreds of thousands of migrants, cause labor shortages and increase prices for consumers.
“We need immigration. Foreign workers are essential to the workforce – especially in this scenario of population aging,” said Roth.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the study of Penn Wharton “illuminates how critical the rational policy of immigration to the welfare of the American economy is.”
He said the United States need a comprehensive immigration reform that includes transfronting migration to support labor needs in industry, construction, agriculture and domestic maintenance, as well as leisure and hospitality.
The study “strongly implies that the current path of immigration policy is neither economically sustainable nor supports the growth or reduction of budget deficits,” said Brusuelas.
