Ministries of Agriculture, Foreign Affairs and Development evaluate the expansion of international destinations and the increase in commercial flow to countries that already import Brazilian products
The federal government maps markets for the redirection of agricultural products that will no longer be exported toif the 50% rate comes into force on August 1. There are two fronts: the opening of new markets and the expansion of commercial flows to destinations to which the products are already exported, report sources to the Broadcast Agro (Real -Time Staff News System). The diagnosis of target destinations is being made by the together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The Middle East and Asia are in the sights.
The initial focus is on the sectors most affected by the 50% tariff and most exposed to the US market, such as orange, coffee, beef, fruits and fish juice, the Broadcast Agro learns. The government aligns the strategy together with the private sector, especially as markets should be prioritized in bilateral negotiations. At the other end, agricultural adidos that operate in the embassies abroad were advised to look for importers to make the country available and identify opportunities abroad. In parallel, trading chambers already drive the government to present their countries as a possible destination for the redirection of Brazilian products, such as the Arab countries.
An initial X -ray presented to the productive sector by the Ministry of Agriculture to entities that represent exporters of the sector includes the completion of market opening dealings, the qualification of refrigerators and the negotiation for the tariff reduction of some products. “All alternatives are at the table to minimize the impacts of affected commercial flow with the United States as much as possible. The first step is to look at sectors that will have sales unfeasible to the US at a rate of 50% and perform active search for opportunities,” says an interlocutor who follows the negotiations. At the Ministry of Agriculture, there is a recommendation to reinforce the minister’s agendas with their peers from other countries to accelerate conversations with high -level importing countries and unlock ongoing negotiations.
Among the possibilities cited are the opening of Japan, Turkey and South Korea for Brazilian beef, which are underway. The most advanced process is with Japan, which has already audited the national sanitary system and should endorse the Brazilian protein in November this year. Still in beef, Brazil negotiates the expansion of refrigerators qualified to export the product to Indonesia, Vietnam and Mexico. There is a request for qualification of at least 50 plants totaling the three destinations. The endorsement depends on the health authority of each importing country.
In the case of orange juice, one of the pipeline negotiations involves China’s tax reduction request for imports of the Brazilian product, which arrives there with a tax of 7.5% or 20%, which today limits shipments to the country. Saudi Arabia is also cited as a destination to expand orange juice foreign sales. China is also at the center of intentions for Brazilian fruits, such as acid lime, and increasing trade for items such as mango and grapes. With Mexico, there is already a negotiation of the Brazilian government with the Mexican government to maintain exemption from tax rate for agricultural products from Brazil, which ends on December 31, and even the expansion of the economic complementation agreement No. 53 (Ace 53). There is also a front to expand commercial promotion for agricultural products, such as coffee in China, which has increasing consumption of Brazilian drink, as well as Brazilian coffee in Australia.
Entrepreneurs in the sector agree with the strategy of diversification of markets proposed by the executive, but in conversations reserved with government members, exporters reported seeing limited effect of actions in the short term. “These are long negotiations and, in some cases, with technical points yet to be resolved,” said one representative of the exporters.
External concern for exporters is especially with volumes already produced for the United States, which are in ports or on the high seas or industry awaiting distribution. “There is no room in the domestic market to absorb all this commodity immediately, which can overthrow prices. But for the long term is the lesson of the importance of deconcentrating the export agenda,” says a leadership of the sector. Exporters even asked the MDIC vice president and minister, Geraldo Alckmin, a differentiated treatment for loads embarked on ports or already on their way to the United States. The claim is that the application of the 50% rate consider the date of shipments of the products after August 1. The base date would be that issued at Bill of Landing, document for maritime cargo transportation.
The Minister of Agriculture himself, Carlos Fávaro, has been publicly reinforcing that 397 new markets have been opened for Brazilian agricultural products in the current management, since January 2023. He argues that the portfolio is proactive in the intensification of market search. The minister has also publicly acknowledged that, despite the strategy of seeking new markets, it is not possible to give vent to all the volume that is sold to the United States in ten to fifteen days. “It is determined by President Lula that this role of opening and expanding markets is intensified, finding alternatives to this Brazilian production,” Fávaro told journalists recently, after meeting of the agricultural sector under the interministerial committee that discusses the reaction of the Brazilian government to the United States.
The concern of the government and the exporters is justified by the trade balance numbers. The United States was the third largest destination for agricultural products exported in 2024, with shipments that totaled US $ 12.1 billion – as it was kept in the first half of this year. From January to June, exports from Brazilian agribusiness to the United States totaled US $ 6.63 billion, 8% of the total exported by the sector in the first half of the year, according to data from Agrostat – Brazilian agribusiness foreign trade statistics system managed by the federal government. Forest products (US $ 1.762 billion, 26.6%), coffee (US $ 1.063 billion, 19.54%), meat (US $ 1.063 billion, 16%) and juices (US $ 743 million, 11.21%) lead the agenda of agribusiness marketed to the US market.
Brazilian agribusiness may stop exporting US $ 5.8 billion to the United States, if the 50% rate announced by the US government on Brazilian products is materialized, estimates the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock in Brazil (CNA). The projection of the Confederation considers a 48% drop in agribusiness product shipments to the US market compared to US $ 12.1 billion marketed in 2024.
*With information from Estadão Content
