Next Thursday (31), the country will know the vacancy rate of the quarter ended in June. The data found by the continuous PNAD (National Continuous Household Sample Survey), prepared by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), will bring something new: the reponderation of the research universe, based on information from the 2022 census, which will cause adjustments in past data.
This means that the population profile observed by the censors will be incorporated into the representative sample of homes that are visited by the researchers. Unemployment rates released in recent months may change. The historical series began in 2012.
“The rendering of continuous PNAD in 2025 considers the population total of populations projections released in 2024, which incorporate the results of the last census, held in 2022. As a result, the historical series of the indicators will be updated,” says IBGE.
An example: If the census shows that there is more women in the population than men in a certain proportion, this same dimension is taken to the PNAD sample. The census prior to 2022 was held in 2010.
With the most recent census, IBGE projects that the Brazilian population in 2024 was 212.6 million. However, PNAD estimated more than 216 million. Therefore, reponderation is required.
Labor market
Every quarter, 211,000 households in 3,500 municipalities in all states and the Federal District are visited by the researchers. PNAD proposes to be the main research on labor market in the country.
By IBGE criteria, the person who effectively seeks employment is only considered unoccupied.
The portrait of the level of occupation is done on information collected from people 14 years old or older and takes into account all forms of work, whether or without a signed, temporary and own portfolio, for example.
It is different from CAGEG (General Registration of Employees and Unemployed), prepared by the Ministry of Labor and Employment, which brings data only related to workers with a formal contract.
Why is there this change?
One of the main purposes of IBGE’s demographic censuses is precisely to update the population parameters of household sample home research, such as continuous PNAD.
Therefore, it is a routine of IBGE to update your sample research after the top of the top demographic censuses. With the repaying, the entire historical series of PNAD Continuous will be updated.
Is it a common procedure, which is often happening with?
It is an IBGE routine and happens after demographic censuses or some special occasions, for example in the case of Covid-19 pandemic, which forced the institute to use phones collection for a while, which required a reponderation.
Do official institutes in other countries also adopt this practice?
Yes, sample research from various countries is updated after demographic censuses.
Should changes in the historical series be significant or marginal (small variations)?
According to the IBGE, what was seen in previous repaying of the ancient PNAD and continuous PNAD is that there were no significant changes in the indicators.
There were minor changes in the absolute numbers of the population, which did not cause significant changes in proportional indicators. In practice, the vast majority of percentages only had changes in the second or third decimal house.
Last data
PNAD’s latest employment data, released on June 27, revealed that Brazil reached the 6.2% vacancy rate in the quarter ended in May, the lowest of the historical series for the period.
Taking into consideration any period, the lowest rate is November 2024, when it reached 6.1%. The largest recorded was 14.9%. This brand was hit in two periods: in the mobile quarters closed in September 2020 and March 2021, both during the Covid-19 pandemic.
What the census showed
Greater and more complex portrait of the Brazilian population, the 2022 Census revealed information such as:
- Population: 203,080,756 people. With this information, IBGE projects that the Brazilian population was 212.6 million inhabitants in 2024.
- Women are 51.5%; men, 48.5%
- They live in urban area 87.4% of the population; They live in rural areas, 12.6%.
- Pardos: 45.3%
- Whites: 43.5%
- Blacks: 10.2%
- Indigenous: 0.6%
- Yellows: 0.4%
