Institutions consulted by Power360 evaluate that the municipality’s monetary policy committee will leave the base interest at the same level by announcing the decision on Wednesday (30.Jul)
The financial market bet that the (monetary policy committee) will leave the same level at the next meeting. The basic interest rate should be 15% per year.
This is the highest level of base interest since July 2006, when Selic was at 15.25% per year-the rate was at this level from June 1st to July 19, 2006. The Collegiate of (Central Bank) will announce the new decision on Wednesday (30.Jul.2025).
O Poder360 obtained estimates of 11 financial institutions and consultancies about the new percentage. They were unanimous about Selic’s magnitude at this week’s meeting.
Read the infographic below:
The Central Bank has signaled that Selic will be 15% for extended time and the impact of restrictive monetary policy. The monetary authority that inflation falls into the permitted range of the inflation target in the 1st quarter of 2026.
Inflation target
The center is 3% per year, but there is a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage point up or down. This means that Brazilian inflation can reach up to 4.5% per year that the goal will be met.
Inflation was valid in 2025. By the new rule, the Central Bank has to take shares to make the accumulated rate in 12 months of the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) – responsible for measuring official inflation– Do not be out of the range allowed by the goal For more than 6 months in a row.
Until 2024, the measurement of the inflation target was annual. That is, if the rate was outside the permitted interval in December, the Central Bank would have breached the CMN (National Monetary Council) rule.
This year, the measurement of inflation is no longer annual and to have another methodology:
- as it was – Until 2024, it was considered as a non -compliance with the goal if the annual December rate was from outside the interval allowed by CMN;
- as it was – From 2025, it will be considered a non -compliance with the goal if the annual rate is left out of the permitted interval for 6 consecutive months.
The last time inflation was below 4.5% in the annualized calculation was in September 2024, when it reached 4.42%.
On July 10, the BC an open letter to explain the reasons for non -compliance with the inflation target. This is a (PDF – 158 kb).
If annualized inflation follows off the goal in the 1st quarter of 2026, the monetary authority will have to publish a new letter with explanations for non -compliance.
About Copom
The monetary policy committee has 9 members: there are 8 directors and BC president Gabriel Galipolo.
Each 1 of them votes to define the basic interest rate. The meetings are held every 45 days. By composition, there is no chance of a draw.
The meetings last 2 days-these are made on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
Those appointed by the President (PT) at the Copom meeting: there are 7 of the 9 seats that make up the collegiate. Only 2 were appointed by (PL), their predecessor.
