Google’s technology company admitted that its timely warning system of earthquakes could not accurately alert people in Turkey to strong shocks, which in February 2023 deprived more than 55,000 people. Referring to the company’s statement on Monday, the British BBC server wrote, TASR reports.
The shocks began with an earthquake with magnitude 7.8, which hit at 04:17. local time on February 6, 2023. They claimed tens of thousands of victims in Turkey and thousands of other people died in neighboring Syria. Approximately 100,000 people suffered injuries. The city was most affected in Antakya in the south of Turkey.
Google’s deficiencies
Early warning from Google called Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) can detect shocks from a large number of mobile phones used by Android. In Turkey, devices with this system account for over 70 percent of all phones.
On the day of the earthquake, AEA was in operation and worked, but underestimated their strength. About 160 kilometers from the epicenter, about ten million people could receive the highest level of warning from the epicenter. They would have up to 35 seconds to try to hide. Instead, AEA sent only 469 such warnings.
Algorithm errors
Google researchers wrote in Science details about where the error occurred. According to them, these were restrictions on detection algorithms. In the case of the first earthquake, they estimated his strength to 4.5 to 4.9 magnitude, although in fact it hit the magnitude of 7.8. The AEA system also underestimated the power of the second large earthquake on the same day, with the highest level of warning sent to 8,158 phones and lower levels of alerts to approximately four million people.
Since many slept at the time of the first blow, it was the most serious warning that could be particularly important for them, because it triggers a loud alarm on the user’s device, which will also deplete the mode of not disturbing, otherwise blocking incoming reports.
System improvement
After the earthquake, experts changed the algorithm and repeated the simulation of the first shock. This time, the system generated ten million alerts for those who were most at risk, and another 67 million for people living away from the epicenter.
“Based on the knowledge gained at every earthquake, we are continuing to improve the system. Each time of timely warning against the earthquake faces the same challenge – tuning algorithms to events with a large magnitude,” Google said in a statement. She added that AEA is an additional system and should not be a replacement for national tools.
However, Elizabeth Reddy’s professional assistant at the Colorado School of Mines University expressed concern that Google needed more than two years to get this information.
“I am really frustrated that it took so long. We are not talking about a small event – people died – and we did not see this warning as we would like,” she said according to the BBC.
