Jair Bolsonaro’s attempt to remain relevant in the political scenario, even after being declared ineligible by 2030, bumps into the perception of most Brazilians about the limitation of external support.
According to a genius/Quaest poll released on Monday (28), 59% of the population believes that US President Donald Trump has no power to reverse the ineligibility of the Brazilian former Mandanker.
Only 31% consider Trump possible positively to interfere with Bolsonaro’s electoral situation, while 10% did not know or did not want to give their opinion. The survey listened to 2,004 people between July 10 and 13, with a margin of 2 percentage points.
Limited support even among voters from Bolsonaro
Trump’s ability to influence the Brazilian judicial process is majority in all segments analyzed, albeit in different intensities. Among the voters of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), the perception that the US president will not be able to change Bolsonaro’s legal framework is almost unanimous: 69% say there is no chance of reversal.
Already among Bolsonaro voters, the scenario is more divided. There is a technical draw: 46% believe in Trump’s strength to reverse ineligibility, while 45% say otherwise – a difference within the 4 -point error margin for this cut.
Among respondents who nullified their votes in the last national election, 59% also consider that Trump has no power to change the condition of the former Brazilian president. Only 27% see some possibility in this regard.
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Two convictions in the TSE
Jair Bolsonaro was (TSE) in two distinct decisions. The first, June 2023, considered that he committed abuse of political power by attacking the electoral system at a meeting with ambassadors during the term. The second, later, dealt with the electoral use of the commemorations of the Bicentenary of Independence, in September 2022.
The convictions prevent the former president from running by 2030. Although Bolsonaro and allies insist on questioning the trials and reinforce alliances with international names such as Donald Trump, the legal scenario depends exclusively on Brazilian justice, something that most of the population seems to understand.
