With the imminent threat of a 50% imposed by the United States, Brazil runs over time to avoid a significant impact on its exports. The measure, announced by, shall enter into force on August 1, generating apprehension and uncertainty in the national political and economic scenario. Christopher Garman, a political analyst at Eurasia Group, and the teacher of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and former Foreign Trade Secretary, Lucas Ferraz, point out that the government acted late in the negotiations.
Since April, when a 10% rate had already been applied, the Brazilian government should have intensified formal diplomatic contacts in the expert’s view. The lack of direct communication between President Lula and Trump, as well as between ministries, is seen as an obstacle.
President Lula’s rhetoric, who made public criticism of Trump, also did not help create a favorable environment for negotiations. Garman suggests that Trump can identify with former President Jair Bolsonaro, which may have influenced the tariff decision. “The root of this fare is that Trump identifies himself with Jair Bolsonaro. He believes he was persecuted by the judiciary, censored by social media. And he was accused of being an antidemocrat. There is a resonance.” Although Lula’s statements are not the direct cause, they certainly complicate diplomatic efforts.
Last Lady: Lula’s direct connection to Trump
Faced with the shortage of time, the suggestion of experts and even members of the Brazilian entourage in Washington, such as Senator Esperidião Amin (Progressives-SC), is that President Lula makes a direct connection to Trump. The letter sent by the US, which, in addition to mentioning internal policy issues, proposes commercial negotiations (such as the opening of the Brazilian market for American products), signals that there is still room for dialogue.
Amin argues that Lula has nothing to lose, just winning ”from this initiative, even if Trump’s reaction is hostile. The lack of a channel of trust between the Brazilian diplomatic corps and the US government is a recurring criticism, reinforcing the need for more effective contact to try to solve the situation.
Contingency plan and possible letters in the sleeve
While diplomacy tries to reverse the picture, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has already stated that the Brazilian government will not give in to the pressures and is preparing a contingency plan. This plan, according to Garman, can include aid packages for exporting companies, with credit lines and tax reduction. There is also the possibility of exceptions in some rates, such as strategic products such as oil.
Professor Lucas Ferraz suggests that Brazil has other “letters in the sleeve” for future negotiations, such as reducing import tariffs and non -tariff barriers, as well as the possibility of partnerships in areas such as critical minerals and renewable energy.
The challenge ahead
The situation requires Brazil to adopt a proactive and assertive strategy. The Senators’ entourage in Washington seeks to dialogue with business leaders, American parliamentarians and civil society representatives. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira is also in the US, but his trip to Washington to discuss the “tariff” depends on the interest of the US government in dialogue.
Amid this scenario of uncertainty, the search for constructive dialogue and diplomatic solutions will be essential to avoid aggravation of tensions and ensure economic stability between the two nations. The question that hangs in the air is whether the last diplomatic card will be sufficient to reverse the impending “fare”.
Posted by Felipe Dantas
