Although dehydrated, the measure of the United States to Brazil and the sanctions to the Minister of the STF, Alexandre de Moraes, continue adding caution
The dollar signed discharge in the afternoon of Thursday, 31, after volatility with technical dispute over the PTAX in the morning, with the real presenting its worst monthly performance of 2025, more specifically since November 2024. There are reports of exit of foreign resources after the market since Wednesday that the fed reserve (Fed, the Central Bank) can keep interest rates at the same time, while the public sector data here consolidated showed a worsening in debt dynamics. Although dehydrated, the United States’s tariff to Brazil and the sanctions to the Supreme Court Minister (), continue to add caution. The drop in commodities and atlasintel/Bloomberg survey showing that the approval of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reaches 50.2%, exceeding the disapproval for the first time in 2025, and leading the scenarios of the 2026 electoral dispute against the right may have pressed the Real, according to operators.
The cash dollar oscillated between R $ 5,5633 and R $ 5,6243 this Thursday, closing 0.21%, to R $ 5,6008, ending July with an appreciation of 3.07%-the highest since November 2024. The future contract for September, in turn, advanced 0.66%, to R $ 5,6440 at 17:17, with considerable turnover of more than US $ 5:17 11.5 billion. The real had the worst monthly performance since November 2024, but still the oscillation has not been distant compared to emerging pairs and commodity exporters, highlights Az Quest multimarket manager, Eduardo Aun.
Lowering 4.17% in the month, Ibovespa has reaped its highest loss since December (-4.28%), interrupting positive sequence between March and June, when the impulse secured by foreign flow to B3 led the index to renew historical maxim, at 141 thousand points, as early as 4 July. Since then, the external flow has been predominantly from the scholarship, a trend that was clearer after July 9, under the Trump government’s threat to impose 50% tariff on imports since Brazil. On Wednesday, came the relative relief of the deadline extended on 6 August for the tariff, also mitigated by the wide list of exceptions that exempted planes, ore, food and oil, but did not favor coffee and meat.
Thus, after the initial perception that the worst scenario was avoided, the month-end adjustment was still negative, with the index on Thursday, 31, down 0.69%, at 133,071.05 points-just above 132 thousand, two of the last four closures and that was not seen, until then, since April 23.
In this Thursday session, it oscillated from 132,096.29 to 133,987.26 points, at the maximum corresponding to the opening level. After the recovery seen on Wednesday, the Giro followed on Thursday to R $ 21.3 billion. In the week, Ibovespa accumulates loss of 0.34% – in the year, rises 10.63%. In B3, however, not only is worth (on -0.71%) and Petrobras (ON -0.56%, PN -0.40%) ended the day in the negative field, as well as most banks (Bradesco PN -0.83%, BB on -1.01%, Santander Unit -0.64%), except Itaú (PN +0.26%) among the largest financial institutions. Some names in the metallic sector, such as CSN (ON +1.01%) and Usiminas (PNA +5.80%), managed to take off from the negative signal to closing. At Ibovespa’s winning tip, as well as usiminas, there is also a highlight for Embraer (+5.78%) and TIM (+3.50%). On the opposite side, Marfrig (-10.20%), BRF (-5.65%), Ambev (-5.25%) and Minerva (-4.45%).
In dollars, Ibovespa had closed June to 25,552.45 and now, at the close of July, retreats to 23,759.29, with the 3% appreciation for the dollar against the real in the month and the nominal retreat of 4% for the B3 index. Thus, it also converges to April levels (23,793.63), at a slightly below that of visa at the closing of May (23,957.79) when Ibovespa, for the first time, supported the 140,000 points mark, then at the historic maxim on the 20th.
*With information from Estadão Content
Posted by Fernando Dias
