The economic and political sanctions imposed on Brazil for establishing the worst moment in diplomatic relations between countries since the Brazilian military dictatorship, experts say.
Adopting the perspective of internal policy, it will show you whether the government will be able to keep the environment in favor of the elections, with the rhetoric of national sovereignty. At the same time, Trump’s economic effects and intransigence can leave the plateau in a delicate situation.
In this scenario, popular dissatisfaction would only increase. Professor of Political Science at (University of São Paulo), José Álvaro Moisés says Lula’s option for negotiating is in accordance with his conciliatory profile. “If there is a debate today about calling Trump, it shows that Lula will want to negotiate. But he will want to argue in his terms, and not let himself humiliate as he has happened to Zelenski,” Moses says, referring to the chat between the US president and the Ukraine leader in Washington earlier this year.
“Trump has already a favor of Lula’s reelection project. Now Lula can show that the Bolsonaro family depends on an outside figure to the point of accepting damage to the country. This Bolsonaro-Trump alliance can affect Brazil in a negative way, and they won’t be there.”
In this negotiation, one of the government’s priorities, says the political scientist, is to be more clear about the reason for the sanctions, as well as the alleged persecution of the former president (PL), now defendant in the (Supreme Court) for the 2022 coup plot.
Moses recalled, for example, the statement made by US embassy business manager Gabriel Escobar about the White House’s interest in exploring the rare lands. Brazil has the second largest reserve in the world of these minerals, important for the technological sector.
“Trump’s interference shows that he belongs to a political and ideological faction that has no respect for the rules conquered, after wars,” says Moses, adding that his sanctions are inscribed in a context of democratic recession around the world. “Authoritarian leaders often always aim at the judiciary.”
This week, Trump signed the decree that implemented a 40% surcharge on Brazilian goods and raised the total value to 50%. Even if it saved almost 700 products, coffee and meat were some of the exports included in the tariff.
In parallel, most STF ministers are prohibited from entering US territory. As announced on Wednesday (30), he was punished with financial sanction against corrupt or persons who have attacking human rights. Diplomatic relations between both countries last 200 years. With the transfer of the Portuguese court to Brazil, the US was the first nation to establish, in 1815, a consulate here in Recife.
Later, they were also agile in the recognition of Brazil’s independence. In the opposite direction, Brazil was the only country in South America to send troops to, which began a partnership between the two armies.
Even though the US does not admit to this day, an inflection point occurred in the dictatorship, when Americans supported the 1964 coup.
For Carlos Poggio, professor of international relations at PUC-SP, the current crisis is the most acute since redemocratization and cannot be compared with the episode then President Dilma Rousseff (PT), during the second term of, in 2013.
“We are at the worst moment of relations between countries,” says Poggio. “Brazil has been in a very complicated situation. It needs to keep trying to negotiate, seeking to know what the US wants, whether it is commercial or political. We know that applying sanctions does not have positive effects,” says Poggio, adding that Lula’s popularity can grow, but that, aiming at the election, it will all depend on its ability to negotiate.
“Lula can put himself as a leader, but the international community is very frightened by Trump’s offensive.”
