Donald Trump, on Brazilian products, although they caused a strong initial repercussion, were, in practice, partially softened by the exclusion of a series of strategic products. However, although the total dimension of economic losses cannot be concluded, what became stronger in the air was the diplomatic tension between Brazil and the United States.
Professor Virginia Machado, a specialist in Constitutional Law, sees measures as “more political than effective”. According to her, Trump would have “shouted too loudly,” but in practice relieved strategic sectors because he would also affect the American economy itself. “The measures represented one more attempted political pressure than a structured commercial movement. It is an act of strength that, when reaching the most vulnerable Brazilian population, ends up injuring human rights.”
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The law teacher also questions the legitimacy of the use of, an instrument used by the United States to impose sanctions on the Supreme Court Minister (STF), Alexandre de Moraes. She argues that because Moraes has no goods in the United States, sanctions have more symbolic than real effect. “It was a more media than practical gesture,” he jokes.
However, from the point of view of the international financial system, the impacts go beyond symbolism. “Even if the sanctioned has no assets in the United States, sanctions oblige banks and institutions with dollar exposure to cut any bond with him,” explains Carlos Henrique, Chief Compliance & Legal Officer from Front Corretora. This means blocking in exchange operations, payments, contracts and custody, also affecting people and companies close to the sanctioned. “It is a measure with extraterritorial effects, and needs to be treated with absolute seriousness within compliance frameworks,” he says.
Tariff
The “Executive Order” signed by Trump foresees an additional 40% rate on Brazilian imports, raising the total rate of some products to up to 50%. However, the decree also features a long list of exceptions – which includes orange juice, oil, airplanes and aeronautical parts, pulp and minerals – responsible for more than 40% of Brazilian exports to the US, according to AMcham Brazil estimates.
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“The list of exclusions brought relief to the business community, but the remaining 60% of the exporting agenda still face a critical scenario,” says Renata Emery, partner of the tax area at Tozzinifreire Advogados. For her, the maintenance of the competitiveness of a significant part of the national industry is at risk. “There is still room for negotiations, especially with the performance of American businessmen who have already pressured the White House to reduce the internal impacts of tariffs.”
However, experts recommend caution by the Brazilian government regarding any retaliatory measures. The fear is that a climb of commercial tensions can further aggravate the scenario for Brazilian exporters, precisely in a moment of global fragility.
Tariffs come into force on August 6, except for the products listed in Annex I of the Decree. Depending on the Brazilian response – and the evolution of the US electoral framework – the environment can move to normalization or, on the contrary, to worsen bilateral relations.
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For Renata Emery, diplomatic movement in the coming weeks will be decisive. “There is still room for dialogue, and the direct involvement of American business sectors can be a more effective way than unilateral actions by Brazil,” he concludes.