The tension returns to markets and bags accuse commercial threats. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has taken a new step in his strategy to redesign the world economic order with a high scope tariff offensive. Although the announced package is more moderate than that of April 2, it puts its possible effects on global growth and inflation again. It will affect imports from up to 200 countries, consolidating a protectionist turn that moves the US of the multilateral order prevailing for decades. Basic rates for most commercial partners are maintained at 10%, but the decision to raise tariffs on Canadian products threatens to rekindle diplomatic tensions.
The market reaction has not been long in coming. Investors, who seemed immune to protectionist threats, accelerate the sale of shares. In Europe the main bags go back about 2%, while IBEX 35 limits 1.3% falls and struggles to keep 14,200 points. In Wall Street, futures point to descents of around 1%, on a day in which tariffs share prominence with employment data in the United States. UBS analysts warn that “since much of the good news has already been discounted, markets are vulnerable to short -term volatility.”
In the Spanish Stock Exchange, Unicaja leads the cuts with a 3%drop, followed by Sacyr and Santander. Only a few values, such as Naturgy, Solar and Enagás, escape the red numbers. “, They are increasingly difficult to justify,” he says to Bloomberg Kim Heuacker, Camarco associated consultant.
The new tariff framework is an unprecedented leap in fiscal pressure on imports. According to Bloomberg economists, the average rates will reach 15.2%, well above 2.3% recorded in 2024 before Trump assumed the position. The tariffs will mean annual income for the US of about 450,000 million dollars according to RBC Bluebay estimates, well above 77,000 million raised in 2024. A figure, equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which would allow Trump slightly lowering the fiscal deficit and placing it below 7% of GDP.
Commercial hardening coincides with a moment of maximum surveillance by investors. An hour before the opening of Wall Street, the employment creation of the United States has been known. In June the US economy created 73,000 jobs less than 104,000 waiting for consensus. But more striking than the figure of the last month is the downward review of the previous month data. In May, 14,000 jobs were created, far from the 147,000 communications at first. With these figures, the unemployment rate misleads one tenth to 4.2%.
Although the labor market is still solid, it begins to cool, an idea presented by Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, the two members who voted in favor of reducing the types at the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. The labor market is next to inflation the two indicators that the institution takes into account to set the types. Its deterioration could be one of the reasons that could accelerate the long -awaited reduction in rates.
This Friday, the justifications of Waller and Bowman have been announced, the discord not seen in three decades within the Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Central Bank. Both allude to an increasing weakness of the labor market. “I think the strategy of waiting and seeing is too cautious,” says the first, while Bowman considers that “the labor market has become less dynamic and shows increasing signs of fragility.”
In parallel, the White House plans to extend the rates to strategic sectors such as semiconductors, critical minerals or medications soon. Specifically, it has sent letters to 17 large pharmacists to demand a price reduction, under the threat of commercial reprisals. This sector, together with the steel companies, are among the most penalized in the stock market for their high exposure to the new tariff environment already possible regulatory changes.
The impact of the protectionist offensive is also felt in currency markets. The dollar is reinforced as a refuge value and the euro is heading to close its worst week in three years. The community currency is about to lose the change of 1.14 green tickets per European unit, something that did not happen since the beginning of June. “Investors have clearly considered that the rebound of the euro has been exaggerated,” they point out from Ebury. In the raw material market, the barrel of Brent oil remains stable around $ 71.6, while in public debt, the Spanish ten -year bonus is quoted with a profitability of 3,311%.
The business accounts of the second quarter also contribute to the volatility of the parques. In Spain, he has announced a semiannual benefit of 1,301 million euros, 43.8% more than in the same period of 2024, promoted by the rise of tourism. In the United States, Apple has broken forecasts with a 10% increase in iPhone sales revenue, while Amazon has disappointed with results below expected, which has led him to fall on the market out of time.
The announcement of the new Trump tariff framework ends months of uncertainty, but does not dissipate volatility. The American president had twice the entry into force of the tariffs: first, in mid -April, and then at the beginning of July, in an attempt to give margin to the negotiations. Although the new package is less severe than the one planned in April, experts warn that the lack of clear technical criteria in many of the measures continues to feed uncertainty. The offensive marks the beginning of a new stage of commercial fragmentation, with increasing risks for global economic growth and a more volatile financial environment to anticipate.
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