Although US President Donald Trump signed an order with the imposition of 50% tariffs for Brazilian exports, the list of decreased the impact of the measure.
According to the monthly market analysis of Rio Bravo, sent exclusively to the Infomoneyit made the Effective average rate fell from 50% to about 29% to 31%depending on the final degree of exemption applied to chemicals and the energy sector.
This makes the macroeconomic consequences of the tariff concentrated in specific sectors, which will be asymmetrically impacted. In the institution’s evaluation, systemic risk is limited in the short term.
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Exclusions relieve sectors
Items such as gross oil, minerals, orange juice, pulp juice, aeronautical parts and aircraft were totally or partially excluded from the tariff scope, through specific provisions of the US Department of Commerce.
Together, these segments account for over 40% of the total value of Brazilian exports to the United States in 2024.
In addition, sectors are negotiating with the US to be.
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“In 2024, Brazil and the US moved more than $ 80 billion in bilateral trade. This year alone, Brazil imported more than $ 49 billion from the US – and over the past ten years, more than $ 440 billion. Business relationship between the two countries is one of the few in which the US has surplus,” the document says.
Non -GDP Impact
Rio Bravo’s analysis cites an impact estimate of 0.8% on Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which could be even lower if sectoral dealings advance to an intermediate negotiation.
Fiscal scenario favorable to the government
Rio Bravo’s analysis also points out that the dispute for changes in the financial operations tax (IOF) had a favorable outcome to the government. The clash between the Executive and the Legislature climbed to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), which brokered the issue.
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Minister Alexandre de Moraes. IOF’s collection for credit operations, foreign currency purchase, monthly applications over R $ 50,000 in VGBLS and FIDCs, among other transactions, was restored, leaving the “draweed risk” – specific modality of anticipation of receivables – excluded because it exceeds the regulatory power, the document points out.
With this, the loss of the government in collection was estimated at R $ 450 million in 2025 and R $ 3.5 billion in 2026.
“Still, the forecast of net collection of the farm remains positive, with an estimated impact of $ 9 billion in 2025,” says the text. “Perhaps the episode serves as a lesson: the political game is volatile and susceptible to reversal. A few weeks ago, the government’s defeat in 2026 seemed inevitable. Today, the same confidence is no longer noted,” the institution evaluates.
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US economy
Rio Bravo analysts have evaluated that the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on American economic activity have had soft effects so far. According to the manager, “it is early to declare trade policy success – but it is also early to declare failure.”
The data indicate that customs revenue exceeded US $ 100 billion in the first nine months of fiscal year, with a record of US $ 113.3 billion on a gross base and $ 108 billion on net base, according to the document.
Exit of immigrants favors data
In the midst of this scenario, the inflationary impacts and the employment market did not appear – but for reasons beyond the tariffs. Unemployment gave 4.1% in June, but not because they are opening more vacancies, but because there are fewer people looking for work due to the departure of immigrants.
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“More than 350,000 Venezuelans lost their temporary protection status at the end of May. Until June, the number of deportations already exceeds 207,000 – and the president’s goal is 1 million,” says the manager.
In addition, the vacancies created in the period came mostly from the state and municipal government. “The demand for work remains, but the pace of hiring slows down, and voluntary layoffs fall. Companies hesitate to hire; workers, to change jobs,” the text says.
Eyes attentive to inflation
Regarding inflation, the data do not yet reflect the possible effects of tariffs, in part because there was a significant increase in imports in the first quarter, with companies anticipating tariffs. This means that current stocks have not yet suffered the effects of the rates.
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The first signs of impact appeared in the June CPI, with price increase in virtually all categories of goods, highlights the institution.
