The traumas of the past tend to activate self -protection mechanisms. It happens with the rise in the price of housing, which returns to the forefront the ghosts of the real estate bubble. And it occurs with the rise of great American technological ones, which drag. The echoes of history can be useful when they prevent mistakes, but parallels, if the analysis is thick, can also push a paralysis that implies the loss of investment opportunities.
In the same way that there are experts marking distances between the speculation that fed the prices of the houses until 2008, thanks to the lightness with which the banking and savings boxes, something that does not happen today, also in technological the scenario the scenario seems different. This difference is confirming in recent days the publication of results of these companies, which add up to a resounding bag that places the S&P 500 again and the Nasdaq in historical maximums.
It is true that, just as it will pass with the Internet, the bonanza is largely associated with an incipient innovation, artificial intelligence, with much to try. But for years the greats of the sector have had quarterly benefits trimester, which in certain cases grow at a good pace, and their business, in which abundant invoices are intermingled for advertising (target and alphabet), mobile phones operating systems (Apple and Alphabet), devices (Apple and Microsoft), or trade (Amazon) is far from depending on a single leg for a single leg for a single leg to depend on work. Little to do with the fragility of many of the companies that shot in the stock market in the beginning of the Internet. More promise than reality and that
Six months after a start up China of artificial intelligence called Deepseek would monopolize global media attention for its ability to achieve something similar to its US rivals, but at a lower price, their irruption, they look like a distant nightmare for American technological ones.
The most bold hypotheses that pointed at the end of American exceptionalism have been parked in a drawer. And the image that gave so much to speak, that of, takes on a new meaning: the Republican has tensioned the rope at certain moments of his first six months in the White House, but has always recounted that the market was left without oxygen, promoting the return of new records to satisfy investors with steel nerves they did not sell. Or that of those who bought in the falls. To take out the American capitalism dead has its risks.
Technology have been in charge of that spectacular recovery. The sum of the stock market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven – Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta and Tesla – has never been as valuable as now, to the point that together they approach the 20 billion, a figure similar to the GDP of China. The records have accentuated this week thanks to the great reception of L among investors. And those of Alphabet weeks ago – those of Amazon and Tesla were received with falls, and those of Nvidia are presented on August 27.
There are many figures to exhibit that power. At the beginning of the month, Nvidia became the first company in history to exceed four billion dollars of stock value. The six largest companies in the world for capitalization are American technological.
The American historian Chris Miller, the most acclaimed work on the semiconductor sector, is not an expert in markets, but explains by email that behind the rise of American technological technological ones there are some fundamental solid and margin to reinforce them. “The adoption of artificial intelligence services has been remarkable, and continues to grow rapidly. All large technology report extraordinary growth rates in use. We are still in the early stages of the development of application systems for AI in different sectors of the economy, which indicates that there is a wide margin to enter significant productivity improvements in the coming years,” he predicts.
The historical maximums of the Magnificent seven should not mask, however ,. Three signatures: Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta, are around 30% upload this year, the triple that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and are the ones that have given the market. Two others, Amazon and Alphabet, quote practically flat. While Apple, with double -digit losses, and Tesla, almost 20%, are loser clear. To the point that Tim Cook’s leadership is questioned at the head of the apple company, lagging behind the battle to lead artificial intelligence.
As with soccer coaches and their past titles, the memory of investors can be short: under the mandate of Cook, CEO since 2011, Apple shares have risen more than 1,500%. Expectations tell more than history, so Cook is willing to pull the immense Apple cash flow to carry out acquisitions with which to grow in artificial intelligence.
The situation of Elon Musk’s electric car manufacturer is even more delicate, and an incursion into politics that disliked many of its clients. There are analysts who directly exclude it from the group of technological chosen and already talk about the Magnificent six.
If this club, popularized in 2023 by Bank of America Michael Hartnett, for having in common its AI exposure, it would function as an index that periodically enter and leave companies according to their performance, it would probably have already been replaced by the Broadcom chips giant. This year, thanks to a rise close to 30%, it has exceeded Tesla in capitalization and is the eighth most valuable company in the world, only behind the Magnificent six and the Saudi Aramco oil company.
Among the American technology of ascending direction also appears the Giant of the Software Oracle, whose co -founder, Larry Ellison, has just taken Mark Zuckerberg. His fortune Brush, according to Forbes, the 300,000 million dollars, thanks to a revaluation of his shares this year greater than 50%. And threatens Musk’s leadership if Tesla continues in the well of which only an acceleration in the development of the autonomous car seems to be able to take it out.
We already know which are the best positioned for what is coming, but past profits do not guarantee future. A Bank of America report points out that larger technological ones have been the great winners of the results season, but due to demanding valuations and a revaluation since April 45% for the magnificent seven, the market as a whole must continue to accompany. “Optimistic investors in companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft and Meta will need to see new maximums in the indices to maintain confidence in their excellent performance.”
Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Slok, these days ago “AI will continue to have a drastic impact on our lives, but the question remains if the magnificent seven have the right price and if they will be the best investments in AI in the next five to ten years.” The appearance of outsiders It is not disposable, but given the fire power of the current dominators, it is not that they end up being engulfed in acquisitions by some of them.
Nelson Yu, director of Variable rental of Allianbenstein, believes that you have to be selective when choosing what to buy among the magnificent seven, and argues that the list of AI winners will grow. “After a period in which the main beneficiaries were the first suppliers of Internet access, the markets were expanded and leadership passed to companies that benefited from the new technology. We believe that today we are witnessing similar patterns,” he says.
In its publication, Torsten Slok, from Apollo, also makes numbers to attract attention to a reality: the excessive market concentration in a handful of names. According to his calculations, who would have invested a million dollars in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2021, he would have won 660,000 dollars today, of which more than half would come from the ten largest companies. “The 10 main companies of the S&P 500 represent 40% of the stock market capitalization (more than 30% comes from the magnificent seven), which means that the fortune of the markets depends more and more on the optimism of investors on AI,” he adds. The conclusion, therefore, is that the S&P 500, despite its half thousand companies,.
Dodging the commercial war
Tariff has undoubtedly been the keyword for markets this 2025. Part of its risks seem to have softened after the signing of US trade agreements with the United Kingdom, Japan and the EU, although the current scenario is worse for free exchange that before Trump’s arrival at the White House. Technology have maneuvered to get airy of the turbulence, with the Nasdaq, noting around 10%, but the weakness of the dollar has had the European investor in the Nasdaq in negative until this week, when the recovery of the green ticket has left practically flat the technological index for those who invested in euros and did not cover the divisa risk.
In the Global Survey of Fund Managers of Bank of America of Julio, the feeling is favorable: it is found that global optimism is booming, the recession expectations back and the appetite for risk increases. They don’t even see the bags with exaggerated valuations. “Greed is much more difficult to reverse than fear,” they point out.
The Magnificent seven appear in a prominent place: buying their shares appears as the second investment preferred by respondents, only behind selling the dollar, and ahead of exposing themselves to gold. Judging for what happened this week, but the great technological ones continue their flight forward without anyone being able to venture where its limit is.
